National Weather Service Raw Text Product

015 
FXUS64 KTSA 191534
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1034 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS TX PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME ASSOCIATED ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADING INTO FAR
WESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION A RELATIVE
MOIST AXIS FROM ARKLATEX INTO NC OK ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER CLOUDS
AND WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...FEEL
THAT WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE OVERALL COVERAGE/PROB TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. THIS MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL HAVE A
HIGHER THREAT OF MOVING INTO EASTERN OK BY EARLY THU MORNING
HOWEVER. OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE UPDATES
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND TO INCORPORATE
HOURLY TRENDS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION AT NE OK 
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE 
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. BEFORE WE GET INTO SOMETHING 
OF A DRY PERIOD...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A COUPLE 
OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. THIS MORNING THERE IS THUNDERSTORM 
COMPLEX THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING INTO 
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS IT DECAYS. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT NOT FEELING OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT 
THIS DECISION. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY 
CREATED BY THIS COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. 

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN 
KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DO 
HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AS THE 
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. 

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS 
IN THE RIDGE THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS OF 
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  90  74 /  10  10  20  10 
FSM   90  68  92  71 /  10  10  10   0 
MLC   89  70  91  73 /   0   0  10  10 
BVO   88  69  88  72 /  10  20  30  10 
FYV   86  64  87  68 /  10  10  10   0 
BYV   87  65  88  68 /  10  10  10  10 
MKO   88  69  89  72 /  10  10  20  10 
MIO   89  68  88  71 /  10  20  30  10 
F10   88  70  90  73 /  10  10  10  10 
HHW   89  70  92  72 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07