068 
FXUS63 KGID 110912
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

UPPER LEVEL PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING RIDGING IN PLACE  
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED OVER TX/OK.  
HAS ENDED UP BEING A FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR A PORTION
OF  THE CWA...AS THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
RIDING ARND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND FORCING VIA THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE OF THE LLJ HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE HAVE PRIMARILY AFFECTED LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB SOUTH
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUCH
DRY AIR IN THE MID/LOWER LEVELS...THE DECAYING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RESULTED IN HEAT BURSTS. LOOKING AT
AUTOMATED STATIONS...AS OF 3 AM KEARNEY HAD SEEN THE MOST EXTREME
CHANGE...HAD RISEN TO 97 DEGREES WITH A DEWPOINT OF ONLY 43.
HOWEVER...AS OF 4 AM HASTINGS HAD ALSO REACHED UP TO 97
DEGREES...WITH A DEWPOINT TANKING TO 40 DEGREES. LXN/HDE/GRI HAVE
ALSO BEEN AFFECTED...AND GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN
AN ISSUE AS WELL.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL 
SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 
FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN LYING WITH 
TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
850MB  TEMPS IN THE 25 TO ARND 30C RANGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS SOARING ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN THE SWRN CWA...WITH MID/UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE. THOSE SWRN LOCATION TEMPS WILL BE HIGH MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH DEWPOINTS LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. FURTHER NORTH...THE MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
LOCATIONS NEAR/NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY POSSIBLY HANGING ON TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE SERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. SO EVEN AT THIS POINT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY. THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY FORECAST LOOK
TO KEEP HEAT INDEX JUST SHY OF ADV CRITERIA...SO HELD OFF OF A
HEADLINE FOR NOW...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN KS WILL STILL BE SEEING WINDS NEAR 
WIND ADV CRITERIA...SO LEFT HEADLINES AS IS.  AS FAR AS FIRE WX 
GOES...EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL WELL INTO THE 
TEENS...FUELS WERE CONFIRMED YESTERDAY TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR 
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.  

LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W/SWRN PART OF
THE CWA...LOCATED IN AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO ANY SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER WRN KS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOULD ANYTHING
DEVELOP...EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH THE CAPPING REMAINING
STRONG.

PRECIP CONCERN CONTINUES ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THIS
NEXT  DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH MOST MODEL SUPPORT SHOWING
THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/PRECIP REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT ESP THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN ALL 
SUGGEST OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MID TO  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC
FORCING PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DO OVERTAKE MOST ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOWEVER...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN SUGGESTING A ~45KT 850MB JET STREAK WILL
HELP MAINTAIN HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
OUR AREA. 20-40% POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RELEGATED ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. HEADING INTO
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT...THUS ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TO PUSH OVER OUR AREA.
ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PRESENTING POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40%
RANGE...TO MUCH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE LOW
PREDICTABLY OF SUBTLE FEATURES...SUCH AS SMALL MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS...DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ON ANY GIVEN DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW PROBABILITY THAT AN IMPROVED FORECAST WOULD BE ACHIEVED IF
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION...THUS THE ALLBLEND
POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE 
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY...BOTH SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY...IS FAR TOO LOW TO PRESENT AN ACCURATE FORECAST. SO
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
HWO.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD PROMOTE SIMILAR 
TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST 
PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 80S AND 90S AND 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

WILL BE WATCHING A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS DAWSON COUNTY...PUT IN A VCTS MENTION AT THIS
POINT...AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD
SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AREA. ONCE THAT PASSES IN A FEW
HOURS...REST OF THE TAF PERIOD IS DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...WITH MORE VARIABLE
WINDS POSSIBLE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE MAIN FRONT
GETS CLOSER. 


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
     FOR KSZ018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADO