996 
FXUS64 KTSA 091147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEAR KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING BVO/XNA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE
COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A
CLEARING LINE HAVING JUST PAST TUL/RVS. SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER OUT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MID CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN
OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES BACK AND
FORTH THROUGH THE REGION. GREATER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THUS HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS
FOR XNA/FYV/FSM. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS SPLIT ACROSS THE REGION (AS SUGGESTED BY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM)...WITH ONE EWD MOVING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS 
SERN KS AND A SEWD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS SW/SC OK. PARTS OF SE OK 
WILL GET GRAZED WITH SOME RAIN THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES 
WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS 
FAR ERN OK/WRN AR. SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK SLOWLY N 
TONIGHT...AND MAY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP AS SWLY 
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT...SETTING THE 
STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. THE ECMWF 
BRINGS A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY KNOCK A FEW 
DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS...BUT TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL 
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST 
FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  70  92  73 /  20  20  10   0 
FSM   83  68  91  70 /  50  10  10   0 
MLC   85  70  91  72 /  30  10  10   0 
BVO   84  65  90  70 /  20  20  10   0 
FYV   79  63  86  67 /  50  20  10   0 
BYV   78  65  86  69 /  50  20  10   0 
MKO   83  68  91  71 /  20  20  10   0 
MIO   84  65  88  71 /  40  20  10   0 
F10   85  70  92  72 /  20  10  10   0 
HHW   87  69  91  72 / 100  10  10   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20