382 
FXUS61 KBGM 082315
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
715 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST.
DRY AIR IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS DRY AIR WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INHIBIT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
FCST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE TIME
BEING. EARLY EVENING VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A GRADUAL
EROSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND POINTS
SOUTH...WITH LINGERING LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED FROM THE
CENTRAL FINGER LAKES AND POINTS NORTH. THOUGH WE EXPECT GRADUAL
CLEARING OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT/S PLAGUED OUR REGION IN RECENT
DAYS...UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOWING THE NEXT IN-BOUND UPPER
SHORTWAVE NOW TRANSLATING EAST FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH LAKE
HURON. AS A RESULT...TOTAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL BE HARD PRESSED
FROM THE STATE LINE NORTH WHERE PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ARE LIKELY. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE NOT ADDED IN A FOG MENTION AS OF YET AND WILL AWAIT
FUTURE SATELLITE TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE DECIDING
WHETHER A MENTION IS WORTH IT. ASIDE FROM THIS...LINGERING LATE
AFTERNOON DRIZZLE GRADUALLY ERODING THIS HR WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS WE CAN EXPECT A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TO OUR NORTH.

330 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE DENSE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES HOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE LOW 70S. DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH MORE AS THE DECK SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE E PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL END BY THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER NY AND PA RESULTING A DRY FORECAST.
A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL BE PRESENT AS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE ROCKIES WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS/NEW ECMWF TRACK AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ULTIMATELY ALLOWING 
IT TO QUICKLY EXIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE CMC
MAINTAINS A FURTHER SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ALLOWING
THE FIRST WAVE TO CONTINUOUSLY DIG BEFORE CLOSING OFF THE AMERICAN
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...UNSETTLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A
RESULT HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH A
THUNDER MENTION ON TUES AS INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN CREEPS NORTH AS
REGION WORKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF
NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS
SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD
WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. 

OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT
SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY
RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH WPC AND
NWP CONSENSUS POINT TWDS A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE'VE ACCEPTED
THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES.

FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/WPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM
THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED
IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT
WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUN UPDATE... SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACRS NE PA AND
NY'S FAR SRN TIER LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE. HOWEVER...LWR
CLDS/MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD ON MORE STUBBORNLY FARTHER N. THUS...WE
HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT
KBGM/KITH/KSYR/KRME THROUGH 02Z.

FCST REMAINS TRICKY LTR TNT/EARLY SUN REGARDING POTENTIAL VLY FOG
DVLPMT. OUR GUT FEELING IS STILL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT (EVEN WITH OCNL MID-LVL CLOUD DEBRIS)...WITHIN A LGT
FLOW REGIME...AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL MOST SITES...TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF FOG. KELM IS NORMALLY THE MAIN CULPRIT HERE...AND WE
SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGN. THUS...WE'LL GO WITH DVLPG IFR
AT THIS LOCALE AFTER 06-07Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR VSBYS ARE FORESEEN
AT THIS JUNCTURE...IN LIGHTER FOG.

FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MRNG SUN...WITH VFR PREVALENT AT ALL SITES
FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTN HRS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (MAINLY AOB 5 KT).

OUTLOOK...

MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE
ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA.  

WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...CMG/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ