054 
FXUS63 KBIS 040556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. 

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. 

THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS STILL HIGHLIGHTS AREAS IN THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN 0515 UTC WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND SERVE TO EXPAND
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ONCE AGAIN TODAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
FINALLY LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF I-94 CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. 
THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. DO NOT THINK FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...OVERLAND FLOODING MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE LATER TONIGHT. 

OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES. FURTHERMORE...SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED AN ENHANCED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND SPIN IN THE LOW-LEVELS CONTRIBUTED
TO MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUD AND A FEW TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. DO NOT THINK FLASH FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...OVERLAND FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RENEWED FLOODING ISSUES. FOR DETAILS OF
OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING ISSUES...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY...RATHER LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK BRINGS
THE 5 PERCENT AREA INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO
MINNESOTA. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA GIVEN THE
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DRY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEFORE A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL. STILL SOME TIME DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER...OVERALL A
BLEND OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED GIVEN FAIR TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT AND LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

CONTINUED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS AT KBIS/KJMS AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DESCEND THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AT KJMS
WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 200. NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY TRENDED WETTER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST
QPF. 2 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NOW COMMON. FOR THE WATCH AREA...FAVORED
AREAS WITH LINGERING HIGH WATER ISSUES FROM THE RECENT ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN...CO-LOCATED WITH THE HIGHER QPF. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS...SUCH AS MORE WATER OVER TOPPING COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP
ROADS...AND FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS...MAY OCCUR
AGAIN THIS WEEK...AS NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL HAVE LINGERING HIGH
WATER AND CLOSED ROADS FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED STORMS THAT PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES SUFFICIENT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMMON OR WIDESPREAD.

IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AT WILLOW CITY ON WILLOW CREEK. THE CREEK
LEVEL REMAINS BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT MAY SLOWLY RISE TO FLOOD
STAGE NEXT WEEK.

CONTINUED SOURIS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR 
FOXHOLM...LOGAN...VELVA...TOWNER...BANTRY...WESTHOPE. THE HEAVY
RAINS LAST WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A DISCHARGE FROM LAKE DARLING DAM OF 950 CUBIC FEET PER
SECOND. THE SOURIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM CONTINUES TO RISE
FROM LOCAL RUNOFF DUE TO SATURATED SOILS.

ELSEWHERE...THE MISSOURI RIVER AT WILLISTON IS NOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
IMPACT OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD 
AVIATION...SCHECK
HYDROLOGY...RP KINNEY