179 
FXUS61 KCAR 030802
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND
DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO
MID WEEK. NEW LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC 
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ONCE 
AGAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. 
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAR MORE LIMITED TO TODAY AS COMPARED TO 
YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS 
SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST AREAS; JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
TO DEVELOP. ACROSS THE NORTH, THE DAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY. 
HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LOW 
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER 
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, LIMITING ANY 
THUNDER AND MAKING FOR A DAY THAT FEELS MUCH LESS MUGGY. HIGHS WILL 
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. 

FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS 
EVENING, BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE 
THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH 
CLEARING SKIES, THIS MEANS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER 
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE FA FROM CNTRL CAN ON
TUE ON BREEZY NW WINDS. LATE MORN INTO AFTN SCT-BKN SC CLDNSS CAN
BE XPCTD ACROSS THE N PTN OF THE FA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF CROSSES
THE REGION...BUT WITH DRY 850-500 MB RH'S PROGGED DURING THIS
TM...WE WILL KEEP POPS BLO 15 PERCENT ATTM.

SC SHOULD DISSIPATE TUE NGT BEHIND THE UPPER TROF AND WITH THE LOSS
OF DAY TM HTG. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVRNGT TUE...SPCLY NW
VLYS WHERE PATCHY FROST NEAR DAYBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC HI
PRES FROM CNTRL CAN WILL CONT TO PREVAIL WED INTO WED NGT WITH
HI TEMPS ON WED SIMILAR TO TUE...A LITTLE BLO AVG FOR THIS TM OF
SEASON. SKIES WILL BE MCLR...WITH INCREASING HI AND MID CLDNSS
POSSIBLE WED NGT OVR WRN AND DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA AS THE SFC HI
PRES AXIS MOVES E OF THE FA. THIS INCREASE IN CLDNSS SHOULD KEEP
OVRNGT LOWS WED NGT A FEW DEG F MILDER THAN TUE NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL OF THE LONG RANGE...MODELS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AND RUN TOO RUN VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF
LOW PRES MOVG SW TOO NE FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VLY REGION. THE 00Z
OPNL GFS RUN SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MORE WRAPPED UP ALF THAN ITS PREV
12 AND 18Z RUNS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS LESS WRAPPED UP WITH THE
UPPER LOW ALF AND FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AS IT
MOVES NE ALG THE NEW ENG COAST. FOR NOW...WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THESE TWO IDEAS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE
00Z GFS ENSM SOLUTION. THIS BLEND BRINGS CHC SHWR POPS TO SW PTNS
OF THE FA BEGINNING THU AFTN AND GRADUALLY MOVES POPS FURTHER NWRD
INTO THE FA THU NGT AND FRI WITH MAX POPS/RN CVRG FRI NGT INTO SAT
ACROSS THE FA JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS THESE TWO PDS FOR ALL XCPT
THE NRN MOST PTNS OF THE FA. RN SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SHWRS LATE SAT
NGT AND END ON SUN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ENE ALG THE SRN PTNS OF
THE CAN MARITIMES AND WHATS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW CROSSES THE
REGION.

SUBSEQUENTLY...AFT NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS THU...HI TEMPS FRI WILL
BE COOLER...SPCLY DOWNEAST...WITH ALL OF THE FA COOLER YET FOR HI
TEMPS SAT BEFORE HI TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT ON SUN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW....WE SHOW SHWRS EXITING THE
FA BY SUN NGT...ALLOWING THE RETURN OF AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON MON...ALG WITH MILDER DAY TM HI TEMPS. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL DUE CLD CVR FROM THU NGT THRU SUN NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOCALIZED IFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A 
COUPLE OF HOURS PAST DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE 
VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE 
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE 
AS A FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN 
END THIS EVENING WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR UNDER CLEARING SKIES BY 
06Z. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TUE THRU THU...WITH
CLGS AND VSBYS SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR IN SHWRS SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION THU NGT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS 
MORNING, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE 
THEREFORE TRANSITIONED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS 
SEAS AND EXTENDED IT INTO THIS EVENING. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED TUE THRU FRI ATTM.
BLENDED WW3 WV GUIDANCE WITH SWAN NAM/GFS...SMOOTHING ABOUT 10 TMS
TO LOWER WV HTS ALG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE AND PROVIDING MIN WV HTS
OF 1 TO 2 FT ALG NEAR COASTLINE...INNER BAYS AND HARBORS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY 
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN