National Weather Service Raw Text Product

152 
FXUS63 KOAX 300941
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
441 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND 

AT 06Z...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE 
PLAINS...COVERING MUCH OF KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN 
IOWA...INTO MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AND BY 09Z...MUCH OF THIS
HAD SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA. THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS
IMPRESSIVE...SATURATED TO AROUND 480MB AND HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 1.9 INCHES...OR 220% OF NORMAL. THIS WOULD BE THE SECOND
HIGHEST PWAT FOR OAX/OMA IN MAY WHICH WAS 2.05 INCHES OBSERVED MAY
18....1988. MU CAPE WAS AROUND 1800J/KG AND 0-2KM SRH WAS
256M2/S2. ON THE 00Z UA MAPS...THE STRONG 130KT H3 JET WAS DIVING
FROM OREGON TOWARD NEW MEXICO. 40-50DM HT FALLS WERE OVER THE
PLAINS WITH A BROAD H5 TROF FROM THE WRN PLAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE H7 PATTERN WAS SIMILAR AND
VERTICALLY STACKED COMPARED TO THE H5 PATTERN WITH HIGH H7
DEWPOINTS OF 6 AT KOUN AND 7DEGC AT OAX. OF NOTE AT H85 WAS
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND A 40-50KT SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

TODAY...THE IDEAL HEAVY RAIN CONDITIONS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE
AREA. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW RELATED TO THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING...SHIFT
EAST...AND THEN SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AND LITTLE INHIBITION. THERE IS A STRONG H5
SPEED MAX MOVING INTO KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TODAY. THE LINCOLN TO OMAHA AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE
LEFT PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY CLOSER TO 1
INCH AND H85 DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER AS WELL. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR
TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER DRYING WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS BULK SHEAR
IS INCREASING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
AREA IS STILL IN THE SLIGHT RISK AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS CAN BE LOOKED AT DURING THE DAY TO GET A BETTER
ASSESSMENT ON HOW MUCH OF A THREAT THERE WILL BE.

TONIGHT...LEFT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS AND THERE IS AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT
MOVES IN. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH A BRISK WEST WIND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FINALLY...THERE IS A REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES  RETURN FOR
MONDAY WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK. 

ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A VERY WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND NUMEROUS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONDITIONS MAY BE VFR OR MVFR...BUT LOWERING
TO IFR WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE
RAIN/THUNDER AFTER 12Z AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS. 

DN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     066>068-078-088>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

ZAPOTOCNY