148 
FXUS64 KTSA 232018
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS FESTERED ALL DAY IN ZONE OF 
RATHER STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NCNTRL INTO ECNTRL OK. HRRR 
MODEL AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGES THIS ACTIVITY...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTION 
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE TOWARD 00Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES 
MORE FOCUSED FARTHER WEST. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
AREAL SHRINKAGE...BUT WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT RADAR BEFORE DECIDING
ON EARLY EVENING POPS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS JUST NOW FIRING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT SE OK LATE TONIGHT. 

MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH BEST 
RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS 
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL 
SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW-END POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

BROAD RIDGE WILL WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDER WEAK SWLY UPPER FLOW IN 
ADVANCE OF WEST COAST UPPER TROF. HAVE KEPT THE EARLY PART OF THE 
NEXT WEEK DRY...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING WELL WEST AND 
NORTH. STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  78  62  83 /  40  20  10  20 
FSM   60  77  57  81 /  10  10  10  20 
MLC   62  78  61  82 /  40  20  10  20 
BVO   55  77  59  83 /  30  30  10  30 
FYV   54  74  53  79 /  10  10  10  20 
BYV   52  72  51  79 /  10  10  10  20 
MKO   59  78  58  83 /  30  20  10  20 
MIO   54  77  57  83 /  10  20  10  20 
F10   61  79  61  82 /  50  20  10  20 
HHW   64  79  62  81 /  40  20  10  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18