423 
FXUS64 KOHX 150416 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT TO PROVIDE FOR MAINLY VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU
16/00Z. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE IN THE 5KT-10KT RANGE THRU 15/14Z
PER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 18KTS POSSIBLE
15/16Z-16/01Z AS TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES CONTINUE ALONG WITH
A RETURN OF DIURNAL MIXING INFLUENCES. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING INTO THE MID STATE AS 16/06Z APPROACHES PER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 834 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID STATE. SW
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. LATEST OBS ARE
STILL SHOWING SW/W WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 MPH AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE. 

NO UPDATES NEEDED...FCST LOWS OF 57 TO 60 DEGREES ARE STILL
EXPECTED. 

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT TO PROVIDE FOR MAINLY VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU
15/24Z. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD RELAX AFTER 15/02Z...BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
CONTINUE IN THE 5KT-10KT RANGE THRU 15/14Z PER TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
INFLUENCES. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 18KTS POSSIBLE 15/16Z-15/24Z AS TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT INFLUENCES CONTINUE ALONG WITH A RETURN OF DIURNAL MIXING
INFLUENCES.  

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 212 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE DOWN ALONG GULF COAST AND ACROSS FLORIDA COMBINED
WITH MINNESOTA LOW CAUSING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF BY 6
PM CDT TODAY AS MIXING RELAXES. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S
ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE AT 18Z. BERMUDA RIDGE
NOT GOING ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REST
OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING A
CHANCE (ALBEIT SMALL) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THURSDAY SHORT WAVE WORKS ALONG EASTERN SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE AS IT MOVES THIS WAY FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
KEEPING SMALL POPS IN FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF MID
STATE BY MONDAY WITH CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WORKING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 

CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH TEMPS ARE AVERAGING 4.5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE COOLER STARTS TO THE MONTH OF MAY ON RECORD
AND THROUGH MAY 13TH RANKS AS THE 16TH COOLEST. THE COOLEST FIRST
13 DAYS OF MAY ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 1917 FOLLOWED BY 1960...WITH
1989 RANKING 5TH AND 1997 RANKING 9TH. IN CONTRAST...THE WARMEST
FIRST 13 DAYS OF MAY ON RECORD WAS IN 1959...WITH 2007 RANKING AS
THE 8TH WARMEST.

BOYD

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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