903 
FXUS63 KFGF 061438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013

ONLY UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS TO THE SKY COVER AS CLOUDS
AFFECTING LESS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW EROSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RRV AND INTO WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BE COOLER
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HANGS ON THE LONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
ELSEWHERE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013

GETTING SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT-WED...AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE
NAM A BIT TOO BULLISH WITH QPF. PREFER THE ECMWF OVERALL SINCE IT
HAS A HANDLE ON THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THIS WEEK.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
SHOULD REACH 70 IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL AND INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013

FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED...SO COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA 
THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASS 
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME SHOWERS 
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY 
WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE 
POST-FRONTAL...SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME. 

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SHARPLY NORTHWESTERLY 
AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH 
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. WELL BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A SURGE OF 
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE A BIT FOR 
SUNDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2013

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODELS COULD BE
DRYING MID LEVELS OUT TOO QUICKLY SO CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2013

THE BROAD CREST WAVE OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS APPROACHING THE
DRAYTON AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A CREST EXPECTED NEAR 40 FEET. THE
CREST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PEMBINA REGION TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A FORECAST NEAR 47.5 FEET. A SECOND ROUND OF RUNOFF
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PEMBINA RIVER WITH ADDITIONAL RISES FORECAST
AT WALHALLA AND NECHE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

ELSEWHERE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS NO NEW RUNOFF IS OCCURRING 
WITH THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE PAST WEEK.

AREAL FLOODING...WILL KEEP THE NORTH DAKOTA WARNINGS GOING AS 
OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES TO CAUSE ISSUES AND ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS