339 
FXUS62 KJAX 060828
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...JUST
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW RETURNS ON THE
RADAR...BUT WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...NO PRECIP HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTN...BUT
EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL TO THE SE TNGT/TUESDAY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE
LIFT BEING SPLIT TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA AND TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WITH A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF ANY POPS TO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA...AND
LATE TNGT/TUESDAY FOR MOST OF NE FL. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE GA AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
ISOLATED POPS FOR AREAS IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE
NE TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AREA WIDE. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS LOCALLY TO SLOWLY RISE ON WED/THURS
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO
FORM AND PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON WED/THURS. HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED...LOWER 80S INLAND/UPPER 70S COAST AND
UPPER 50S INLAND/LOWER 60S COAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SLOW HEIGHT RISES ON THURS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING A FEW
MORE DEGREES AND LOWS REMAINING NEAR CLIMO.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA ON FRI DOWNSTREAM
OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NE FL...BUT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PERSIST AND LIMIT COVERAGE...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPS
ON FRI/SAT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND/LOWER 80S COAST...AND
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE.
06/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BREAK
DOWN MORE QUICKLY...BY LATE SAT...THAN THE 06/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS.
OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT PM...EXCEPT
LOW-END CHANCES FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
AMPLIFYING TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST GA. PLACED CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD DROP BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR CLIMO...80-85 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MAINLY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT BUOY 41012 HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR SCA ONCE AGAIN. THINK
THIS IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE...THUS WILL USE SCEC FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TODAY. WITH LINGERING EAST SWELL...SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT SCEC THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MID/LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  52  75  52 /  10  20  30  10 
SSI  71  56  73  59 /  10  10  30  10 
JAX  74  52  77  56 /  10  10  20  10 
SGJ  74  55  77  59 /  10  10  20  10 
GNV  74  50  78  53 /  10  10  30  10 
OCF  76  52  79  56 /  10  10  40  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON

767 
FXUS62 KJAX 060731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SE GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...JUST
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW RETURNS ON THE
RADAR...BUT WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...NO PRECIP HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA
TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTN...BUT
EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL TO THE SE TNGT/TUESDAY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE
LIFT BEING SPLIT TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA AND TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WITH A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF ANY POPS TO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA...AND
LATE TNGT/TUESDAY FOR MOST OF NE FL. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE GA AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
ISOLATED POPS FOR AREAS IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE
NW TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AREA WIDE. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...ALLOWING FOR HEIGHTS LOCALLY TO SLOWLY RISE ON WED/THURS
AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO
FORM AND PUSH INLAND. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
AND A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON WED/THURS. HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO ON WED...LOWER 80S INLAND/UPPER 70S COAST AND
UPPER 50S INLAND/LOWER 60S COAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SLOW HEIGHT RISES ON THURS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING A FEW
MORE DEGREES AND LOWS REMAINING NEAR CLIMO.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER OUR AREA ON FRI DOWNSTREAM
OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES COULD DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NE FL...BUT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD PERSIST AND LIMIT COVERAGE...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPS
ON FRI/SAT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND/LOWER 80S COAST...AND
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE.
06/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BREAK
DOWN MORE QUICKLY...BY LATE SAT...THAN THE 06/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS.
OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT PM...EXCEPT
LOW-END CHANCES FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
AMPLIFYING TROUGHING BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST GA. PLACED CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD DROP BACK
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR CLIMO...80-85 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MAINLY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT BUOY 41012 HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR SCA ONCE AGAIN. THINK
THIS IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE...THUS WILL USE SCEC FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TODAY. WITH LINGERING EAST SWELL...SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT SCEC THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MID/LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  52  75  52 /  10  20  30  10 
SSI  71  56  73  59 /  10  10  30  10 
JAX  74  52  77  56 /  10  10  20  10 
SGJ  74  55  77  59 /  10  10  20  10 
GNV  74  50  78  53 /  10  10  30  10 
OCF  76  52  79  56 /  10  10  40  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON