083 
FXUS64 KMEG 220218
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2013/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MIDSOUTH WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE
NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ON
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE NAM AND EURO HAVE SLOWED
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH IS SLOTTED ON SPC'S DAY3 OUTLOOK
FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT BELIEVE THERE ARE TOO 
MANY LIMITING FACTORS FOR THIS THREAT TO BE REALIZED. SUCH AS A
POSITIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER SUPPORT THAT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
FRONT PASSING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET/PEAK HEATING STRENGTHENING AN
ALREADY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...A MODERATE AT BEST LOW LEVEL JET OF
35-40KTS THAT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
SLOPE...AND LAST A NARROWING PLUME OF NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS
CONTINUALLY GETTING PINCHED OFF AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE THE MIDSOUTH HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SUBSEVERE STORMS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A STRONG
WIND GUST...OR AN ELEVATED POST FRONTAL STORM CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES WITH QPF AMOUNTS MAINLY IN
THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE. RAIN SHOULD COME TO END ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS NOW
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...OR AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY TO THE EAST COAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO TRACK NORTH AN
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY LIFT/TRACK A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL SETUP ACROSS MISSISSIPPI OR
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PAST GFS MODEL RUNS
HAVE KEPT INCHING IT FURTHER NORTH...INCREASING THE INSTABILITY IN
OUR AREA. WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH...PROVIDING COOLER
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
OVERRUNNING RAINFALL. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS PLACING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR INTERSTATE FORTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH AND THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTH. LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES MAY VARY TWENTY DEGREES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. LATER ON SUNDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ALLOWING
FOR A BRIEF INTRUSION OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION.

JAB

AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (22/00Z-23/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTS WINDS 
TONIGHT BECOMING SE-S 9-12 KTS MONDAY. 

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  50  74  57  77 /   0   0  10  20 
MKL  44  73  52  73 /   0   0  10  10 
JBR  45  71  54  72 /   0  10  10  30 
TUP  47  73  52  76 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$