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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLZK Product Timestamp: 2013-04-19 17:53 UTC
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585 FXUS64 KLZK 191753 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1253 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013 .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE CALMING DOWN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013/ UPDATE... HAVE REMOVED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NRN AND NWRN COUNTIES FOR SAT MORNING...AND REPLACED THESE COUNTIES WITH A FROST ADV. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE DOESNT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED AND LOW LYING AREAS THAT DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...BUT MOST OF THE AREAS WILL STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAINLY JUST FROST WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN RATHER THAN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY QUIETER AND MUCH LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON THU. ALL PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE STATE...BUT CLOUD COVER REMAINS. THESE QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CLOUDY SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT NWRLY WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH SOME 60S COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S BY SAT MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AND VALLEY AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE SEEN...WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE THE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR NOW...THOUGH HAVE REMOVED SOME SERN COUNTIES FROM THE FROST ADV AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUN...WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NORMAL THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE WEST AND NW LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN COUNTIES MON AND MON NIGHT. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TUESDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AR WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AT THIS TIME TOO EARLY TO SAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT WITH CURRENT PATTERN TRENDS AND LAST TWO SYSTEMS...WILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLATED STORMS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER AR. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE EURO...AND AT THIS TIME A BLEND HAS BEEN USED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 35 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 CAMDEN AR 34 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 10 HARRISON AR 35 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 36 68 46 70 / 0 0 0 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 38 68 46 70 / 0 0 0 10 MONTICELLO AR 39 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNT IDA AR 34 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 NEWPORT AR 36 66 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 PINE BLUFF AR 39 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 34 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 SEARCY AR 35 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 STUTTGART AR 37 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE- BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER- FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON- JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY- PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE- VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS- BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY- DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN- LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK- POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN- WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. && $$ AVIATION...56