243 
FXUS63 KFGF 141133
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DELAY THE START TIME OF THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS...WITH SNOW STARTING LATER IN ALL AREAS.
SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...SPREADING TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL
18ZMON WITH A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY TODAY ONCE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND WINDS INCREASE. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...AND
HAVE MENTIONED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE WSW MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC/UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN ALL HEADLINE
TIMING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL BE DELAYED AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
THE GRIDS.

FOR TODAY...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT PER QG/OMEGA FIELDS WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES ALONG WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. THERE WILL BE TIMES OF
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN EASTERN ND WHERE HEAVY
SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH.
THEREFORE...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT WHEN SNOW BEGINS. FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...SNOW MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL NEAR
00Z. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN NEAR GFK AROUND 20Z...AND AROUND 16Z IN FARGO.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT A
LARGE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND FOR THE REGION. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLOW START TO THE STORM...SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 18Z AT LEAST...AND HAVE INCREASED
SNOW CHANCES HERE. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BY AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH NEAR
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL AS WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
A FRESH SNOW PACK.

ATTENTION ON WEDNESDAY TURNS TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE 
WEST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH 
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT INTO 
THE PLAINS...AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE 
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN RECENT 
DAYS...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE 
EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH. THE 00Z 
GEM/GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE 18Z DGEX SUGGEST A SLOWER AND FARTHER 
NORTH SOLUTION COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF... AND THUS WOULD YIELD 
BETTER SNOW CHANCES FOR THE REGION. TIME OF YEAR AND STRONG 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WOULD SUPPORT A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION...BUT 
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK/TIMING IS STILL LOW...GIVEN THE LACK 
OF MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING...THOUGH. WILL KEEP 
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION...IN 
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES 
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH BELOW MID-APRIL 
AVERAGES...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY WILL REMAIN 
IN 30S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30KT AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SNOW BANDS ALONG WITH
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY 
     FOR NDZ028>030-038-039.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY 
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ029>032-040.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY 
     FOR MNZ002-003-022>024-027-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY 
     FOR MNZ001-004>009-013>017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK