National Weather Service Raw Text Product

724 
FXUS63 KTOP 112027
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND A WAVE WAS 
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND THE CIRCULATION. 
THIS HAD DEVELOPED SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN NEBRASKA. THE 
CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO 
NORTHERN KANSAS AND AS THE EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES EAST THIS EVENING 
SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. CANNOT 
RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL 
MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS THERE. TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SOME CLEARING 
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN 
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN NEAR 30 IN THE EAST. 

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WITH 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED 
TO RECOVER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 
50S ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE 
WITH SOME HIGH GUSTS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

CONDITIONS FALL SHORT OF LINING UP JUST RIGHT FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT 
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH BUT MID CLOUDS 
INCREASING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST 
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH FREEZING BUT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS MAY 
PUT THE LOWEST TEMPS BEFORE 12Z. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO WATCH AS 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN BEFORE SUNRISE IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS 
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO ENOUGH SATURATION VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT 
FOR SHOWERS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES SHOULD COME FROM LATE MORNING INTO 
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SATURATION VIA WAA DECREASING THEREAFTER. WHERE 
THE BEST FORCING WILL CONCENTRATE AND AT WHAT TIMES IS STILL 
UNCERTAIN AND WILL STILL KEEP CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 
LOW. THERE IS RATHER HIGH SPREAD WITH WHERE HIGHS WILL END UP 
SATURDAY WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD DIFFERENCES AND WENT A BIT BELOW MOS 
BASED ON THE COLD START AND INITIAL LIGHT WINDS. A MUCH WARMER NIGHT 
IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ON 925MB 
WINDS AROUND 40KT. 

TIMING DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT IT 
APPEARS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW 
WITH CAPPING STILL AN ISSUE WITH BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE 
FRONT STALLS AND CONVERGENCE DEEPENS. BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO 
UPPER FLOW ON INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASING IN MERIDIONAL FLOW 
ALOFT THAT MAY BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA SHORTWAVES OVER 
THE BOUNDARY WITH TIME. HARD TO NAIL DOWN JUST WHEN THIS WILL 
BE...AND HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOR THUNDER CHANCES...BUT 
WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN 
OPPORTUNITIES SHOULD INCREASE. 

NEXT FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO COME IN AROUND WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON 
HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE CAN DIG BEFORE IT COMES OUT...THE STALLED 
FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH BACK NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE 
THE COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH. WILL ADVERTISE WARMER TEMPS WILL THIS 
IN MIND BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING BY LATE 
DAY. THIS DAY COULD PRESENT THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OF 
THIS FORECAST. TEMPS ALOFT COOL ENOUGH WITH SOME TROFFING REMAINING 
ALOFT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AGAIN WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR MOST PERIODS WERE TRENDED COLDER WITH 
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUD/PRECIP POTENTIAL. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 CDT THU APR 11 2013

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
21Z THEN BECOME VFR. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS EVENING THEN
ANOTHER STRATUS/CUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY
AND EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY VFR WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR
CIGS. WINDS WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 13Z
FRIDAY. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53