367 
FXHW60 PHFO 110157
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
357 PM HST WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER MODERATE EAST- SOUTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO
KAUAI FRIDAY...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CARRY VOLCANIC HAZE OVER MOST AREAS OF THE
STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE ON MONDAY...CLEARING THE INCLEMENT WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER LEEWARD AREAS WHILE CLOUDS
CONTINUALLY CLING TO WINDWARD SLOPES. THURSDAY/S WEATHER LOOKS
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH LEEWARD AREAS SEEING CLEAR SKIES IN THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDWARD SLOPES
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL IN CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS.

THE ISLANDS ARE STUCK BETWEEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR
MIDWAY AND A STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE FAR NE OF THE STATE. THIS
SCENARIO PLACES HAWAII SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO TURN OUR WINDS OUT OF THE ESE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES TOWARD
THE ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER KAUAI...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER OAHU. THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER KAUAI AND OAHU.

OAHU WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THE WEATHER WILL BE FINE AND PLEASANT FOR MUCH OF THE TIME
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AS SHOWERS FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

VOLCANIC HAZE EMANATING FROM THE BIG ISLAND WILL INFILTRATE THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN DISTRICTS OF THE BIG
ISLAND...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH THE HAZE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...REMOVING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER KAUAI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER
NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING WETTER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LOOK TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE WET WEATHER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES...SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE INTENSE THAN OUR NORMAL
TRADE WIND WEATHER.

INCREASING TRADE WINDS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THE WET
WEATHER WEST OF KAUAI...LANDING THE ISLANDS BACK INTO AN EASTERLY
TRADE WIND REGIME. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE WITH ISOL MVFR CEILINGS ALONG 
WINDWARD SLOPES.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 9000 FEET 
LEE OF MOUNTAINS FOR ALL ISLANDS. 

&&

.MARINE...
SURF ON ALL SHORES WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
WEEK. A MODEST SWELL FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS 
WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT 
TO HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES DUE TO GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 
DIVERTING AROUND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. 



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY 
WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON...PUBLIC AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION