302 
FXUS64 KBMX 042323
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 PM CDT THU APR 4 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ALL AROUND RIGHT NOW. SOME AREAS ARE SO 
LIGHT ECHOS ARE NOT REALLY SHOWING UP THAT WELL. MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE 
THAN RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND MEASURE 
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS 
NOW SLIDING EAST AND MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS TOUGH 
SLIDES CLOSER TO WESTERN ALABAMA BY 7 PM TONIGHT WE WILL LIKELY SEE 
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH 
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE WILL 
BE THERE...HOWEVER SCATTERED RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST 
OF THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MAIN LIFT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST 
AND THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD. WOULD NOT 
BE SURPRISED TO SEE EITHER DRIZZLE/RAIN/AND OR FOG AS THE SYSTEM 
EXITS DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG 
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE HEIGHT OF THE 
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE 
LIMITED VISIBILITIES. 

THIS SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DRY CONDITIONS 
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THE DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/VALLEY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WE WILL BEGIN TO WATCH A 
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AS A VERY LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE 
INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THERE MAY BE 
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
EACH AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM AT THIS TIME. 

NOW INTO THE TIMING IF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST EURO 
AND GFS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE ONSET OF THE THREAT IN THE NORTHWEST. 
THE GFS BRING IN THE INITIAL LINE AS EARLY AS 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING 
AND THE EURO 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER 
MAY LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIAL INTO 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT GET INTO ANY BIG SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME 
AS THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BUT 
TAKE THE TIME NOW TO PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INSTEAD OF WAITING 
FOR THE DAY OF THE EVENT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE.  IFR TO LIFR WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND YOU CAN THROW IN SOME 
PERIODS OF DZ AS WELL...AS THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS CLOSER TO THE 
STATE.  MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT LATE TONIGHT FOR A COUPLE SPOTS OF 
VLIFR...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR THIS TREND.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO 
IMPROVE...SLOWLY...FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL REMAIN PESSIMISTIC IN THE 
TIMING OF VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO OUR TERMINALS...KEEPING CIG 
LIFTING 3-5 HOURS LATER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE...BUT VFR CONDITIONS 
SHOULD RETURN TO EVERYONE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT EASTERLY BREEZE TO A NORTHERLY 
BREEZE BY MORNING.  A FEW GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE GET INTO THE 
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY...LASTING INTO THE 
EVENING HOURS.

27

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$

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