268 
FXUS63 KMPX 010003 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013/

FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS 995 SURFACE LOW OVER FAR WESTERN
QUEBEC HEADS NNE TO JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY BY SUNUP ON MONDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THIS
TIME FRAME. INTRUSION OF COLD DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS 513-520DM THICKNESS VALUES MAKE THERE PRESENCE FELT BY 01/12Z.
MARCH WILL END LIKE A LAMB AS OVERNIGHT LOWS THROTTLE BACK TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCALES. LARGE
AREA OF STRATOCU OVER NE MN SHOULD SLOWLY DISINTEGRATE AS HEATING
EBBS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BUFKIT AND NAM Q-RULE INDICATING
ADDITIONAL STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING ON MONDAY OVER FAR EAST
CENTRAL MN AND ALL OF W CENTRAL WI. ALTHOUGH SFC GRADIENT WILL
RELAX FURTHER THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...STILL ENOUGH MIXING OF
MINUS 10 TO MINUS 12 DEGREE 850 TEMPS TO KEEP MONDAY AFTN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S CWA WIDE.

SURFACE RIDGE PARKS OVER FAR WESTERN FA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND STILL RATHER ABUNDANT SNOW PACK OVER
FAR NORTHWEST FA SHOULD PORTEND VERY COLD SWATH OF 10 TO 15
DEGREE OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS REGION AND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
WI. VERY QUICK TURNAROUND IN TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO LEE OF 1034MB SURFACE HIGH OVER GREAT LAKES 
REGION SHOOTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. SFC TROUGH 
ANTICIPATED TO TREK THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING. GOOD 850MB TONGUE OF WARM AIR SHOULD KEEP LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION AT LEAST A RAIN SNOW/MIX MOST AREAS. 

LARGEST STORM SYSTEM OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
EFFECT THE WESTERN FA BY FRIDAY AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AFTN. GFS40 INITIATES PRECIPITATION ABOUT 12 HOURS EARLIER THEN
GEM OR EUROPEAN. ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIP ANTICIPATED WITH GFS40
...ALL THREE MODELS PAINT A VERY HEALTHY ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE CWA DURING
THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. DP/DT INDICATING A SLIGHT BIAS TO THE
NORTH FOR GFS LAST FEW RUNS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
BEST FORCING AND POPS GOING FORWARD OVER CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH
850 TEMPS WOULD DENOTE AN ALL SNOW EVENT...EVENTUAL NORTHERLY
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR 
LIQUID PRECIP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF FA...WITH A MIXTURE
NORTHERN HALF. AT THIS JUNCTURE COULD BE A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL OVER FAR NORTHERN FA BY SATURDAY MORNING. 

LONGER TERM COULD BE A SHORT REPRIEVE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS
ANOTHER CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE'S PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINS TO
OVERRUN FAR SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. GFS40
AND EUROPEAN BOTH INDICATE MODERATELY INTENSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEING EJECTED OUT OF DEEP TROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.  

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATOCU FIELD ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS...NERN MN...AND WRN WI SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH DRIER
AIR PUSHING IN. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. 
WED...VFR. S WINDS 10 KT.
THU...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SW WIND 15 TO 20 KT SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

PREV DISCUSSION...AZ 
AVIATION...BORGHOFF