214 
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1254 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

A SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A MILD AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...SAW
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST REACHING 20 MPH.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR LATE MARCH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE INGREDIENTS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE...MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING FOG
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND
CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. AS A RESULT...KEPT
ANY WORDING FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA...AND WITH GOOD MIXING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THOUGH...DID NOT INCREASE TEMPS AS
MUCH AS 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT STUCK ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ANYHOW. LATE IN THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE BUILDING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
BEFORE 00Z. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOCAL AREA TILL THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 JUST BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

IN VERY GENERAL SENSE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A FEW DAYS 
OF CLASSIC SPRING WEATHER...THEN RE-VISITS LATE WINTER FOR A FEW 
DAYS BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO SPRING-LIKE VALUES BY MID-LATE NEXT 
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT THE ONLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 
FORECAST...THE TWO MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 

STARTING OUT FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...12Z MODELS SUCH AS THE 
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC 
PATTERN...DEPICTING BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES/PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...A MODEST 25-35KT 850MB LOW 
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND VEER EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE 
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL DOES NOT APPEAR 
GREAT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS...HAVE MAINTAINED 20-50 POPS 
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL EXPECTATION OF A WEST-TO-EAST 
PROGRESSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS PER THE REFLECTIVITY PROG OF 
THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM. DEPENDING ON WHEN CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS 
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...IT MAY VERY WELL BE WELL AFTER SUNSET BEFORE 
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SEES ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. AS FOR STORM 
STRENGTH...THE LATEST FEW NAM RUNS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON MUCAPE IN 
THE 850-700MB LAYER TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 600-900 J/KG...WHICH IN THE 
PRESENCE OF 40+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT 
TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW CORES WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO 
DIME/PENNY SIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SREF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PROBS WOULD EVEN SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS NOT 
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING QUITE THAT 
AGGRESSIVE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMP-WISE...THIS SHOULD 
BE THE MILDEST NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME...WITH MID 40S IN MOST 
AREAS. 

SATURDAY DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY 
MILD...WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY 15+ MPH OUT OF THE NORTH 
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE TO THE MID 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSING INTO NEB/IA. PRECIP-WISE...AM STARTING TO THINK 
THAT EVEN THE CURRENT 20-40 POPS COULD BE OVERDONE...AND FURTHER 
REDUCTIONS/REMOVAL OF POPS MAY BE FORTHCOMING. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL 
ASSUME THAT AT LEAST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE 
AFFECTING FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE MORNING...WITH MAYBE A 
FEW ROGUE SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH IS 
THAT SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. 
DESPITE VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT AT 850MB...DECENT
MIXING ARGUED FOR RAISING HIGHS ROUGHLY 3-4 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS...WITH NEB ZONES LOW-MID 60S AND KS ZONES NEAR 70. SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AS THE AREA REMAINS
BETWEEN FORCING FROM PASSING NORTHWEST FLOW WAVES.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS BACK UP ROUGHLY 4-5 DEGREES MOST
AREAS...AS MODELS HAVE AGAIN BACKED OFF ON THE SPEED OF THE
INVADING STRONGER COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT
THIS TREND IS SET IN STONE...NOW HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S
NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT FALLING
TREND MAY KICK IN NORTH OF I-80 LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LEADING
EDGES OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SEE INCREASING FORCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. PRECIP-WISE...KEPT ALL MENTION OUT OF THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT KEPT VERY LOW/UNCERTAIN 20-30 POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE STRONGER COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS...AND INCREASING ALTHOUGH STILL NOT
LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS VERY POSSIBLE...THIS STILL DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A MAJOR HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. 

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE PRECIP-
FREE AFTER SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH WILL LINGER SOME 20-40 POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 AS THE MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL SATURATION
STEADILY SINKS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. AGAIN...STILL CAN/T RULE
OUT A SOMEWHAT MESSY MORNING COMMUTE IN SOUTHWEST AREAS...BUT NOT
LOOKING MAJOR. THE BIG STORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY WILL BE AT
LEAST ONE MORE BLAST OF WINTRY COLD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30S MOST AREAS...REFLECTING QUITE A
RUDE CHANGE FROM SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP-
FREE...ALTHOUGH KS ZONES COULD STILL BE FLIRTING WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. 

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SHORT STORY IS A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 60 HOUR PERIOD...AT LEAST FOR NOW...AS THE BIG
PICTURE FEATURES CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS A MODEST RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE STILL SUGGESTIONS THAT A
LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL KICK EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE OK/TX AREA...WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY
LIFTING THIS WAVE A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO KS. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE
TUES NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME...BUT THE PREFERRED ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOCAL AREA PRETTY DARN DRY. TEMP-WISE...ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY STEADY
RECOVERY...WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S
TUESDAY...50S WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S BY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE A TOUCH OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE BY 03Z SATURDAY.

PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE TERMINAL DURING
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. APPROACHING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN PROVIDE A LOWER CEILING AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
CLOUD BASE PERHAPS FALLING TO AROUND 2500FT AGL BY 03Z. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION...TO AROUND 5SM...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN FOG AND
RAIN BEGINNING AROUND 03Z. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION BEING REALIZED AT KGRI AS EARLY AS 22Z FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION ACTUALLY
OCCURRING THAT EARLY IS FAR TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT KGRI ARE MUCH
HIGHER POST-SUNSET AND AS A RESULT...PREVAILING TSRA EXISTS IN
THE TAF BEGINNING 03Z. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN
7KTS AND 11KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT