712 
FXUS61 KBTV 241922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH 
COUNTRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY 
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. 
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 30S AND 
LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO BIG SYSTEM 
ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX MID/UPPER LVL 
PATTERN ACRS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS...WITH DEEP CLOSED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACRS EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE CYCLONIC FLW ACRS THE NE
CONUS WL CREATE A FAST CONFLUENT FLW AND KEEP MS VALLEY SYSTEM
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WL BE CAPTURED BY CLOSED
CIRCULATION ACRS THE NE CONUS AND COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TWD MID WEEK. FOR
TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW PLENTY OF RH BTWN SFC AND
800MB...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...DEPTH OF RH IN
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION (-12 TO -18C) IS
LIMITED...SO A MIX OF FZDZ AND SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE.
ANTICIPATED QPF IS VERY LIGHT <0.05"...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND TAPER OFF
TO <15% IN VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT. WL TREND TWD THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS...MAINLY 20S MTNS TO NEAR 30F VALLEYS. IF MORE CLRING
DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED TEMPS WL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER.

MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WL APPROACH OUR CWA FROM SOUTHERN 
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING SYSTEM WELL 
TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH BEST FORCING/MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF. 
IN ADDITION...1000 TO 700MB WINDS SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON 
MONDAY...RESULTING IN LESS UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THINKING LLVL MOISTURE 
WL DECREASE...BUT WITH INCREASING RH ALOFT...SKIES WL CONT TO BE 
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO 
C...SUPPORTING U20S TO L30S MTNS/NEK TO U30S TO L40S WARMER VALLEYS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...PROGGED 980MB LOW PRES WL TRACK SE OF THE 40/70 
BENCHMARK ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY BE CAPTURED BY DEEP
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CANADA AS BLOCK CONTINUES OVER THE
NE CONUS/NORTH ATLANTIC. WL MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHERN VT NEAR KILLINGTON ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT QPF WL BE LIGHT. BY TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND LLVL CAA REDEVELOPS ACRS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BACK TO AROUND -10C...SUPPORTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 20S MTNS TO M/U 30S VALLEYS...WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN IT WL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE FEB THAN
LATE MARCH ON TUES. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME
LLVL MOISTURE...COULD PRODUCE SOME MTN SNOW SHOWERS TUES INTO TUES
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH QPF VALUES
<0.05". THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLW WL PREVAIL TUES NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
CHANGE EXPECTED IN THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES ACRS OUR CWA. WL
KEEP A PERSIST FCST WITH CHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN 
IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM MOVES
INTO MARITIMES MIDWEEK AND ROTATES WITH ANOTHER UPR LOW EMBEDDED
AND FORMING ACRS NEW ENGLAND OR GULF OF MAINE TO CONTINUE
COOL...CYCLONIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...UPR
LOW SHIFTS E WITH SOME RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NE CONUS
YET ITS STILL ON SHARP NW UPR LEVEL FLOW THUS SOME MODERATION IN
TMPS BUT STL ONLY NEAR NORMAL (47/29 FOR APRIL 1ST).

PERSISTENT WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE WITH PTLY SUNNY/MSTLY CLDY SKIES 
AND PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS...MORE NUMEROUS IN MTNS. BEST CHC LOOKS 
LIKE WED-THU WITH MOSTL CLOUDS AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THERAFTER.

SOME GREAT SPRING SKIING WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE MAPLE 
SUGARING LATE WEEK/WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME SUNSHINE AND MILDER DAYTIME 
TEMPS WOULD BE PREFERRED.

ANOTHER BRIEF COLD SHOT EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK THEN PERHAPS A 
PATTERN SHIFT THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH LESSENING EFFECTS MONDAY BUT
LIKELY RETURNING FOR REST OF THE WEEK. 

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SNOW FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDS ESP THRU 00Z WITH ANY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. 

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRIEF IFR AT
TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW