050 
FXUS63 KFGF 230814
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND FLURRY CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...WITH A QUIET OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 7 DAYS. 

FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE WEST AND NORTH
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS LACKING THOUGH
SO WILL NOT MENTION MEASURABLE QPF. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A FEW
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS...AND BE COLDEST IN THE VALLEY
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S WITH NEAR 32 IN THE TREED AREAS OF
MN. 

FOR TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES
AROUND FOR ALL AREAS. IF CLEAR SPOTS DEVELOP IN AREAS...THEN SOME
LOCALIZED COLDER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COOL ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 850MB WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE VALLEY
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW PERHAPS ON E/W ROADS.
OTHERWISE...SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN SATURDAYS READINGS WITH THE LOW LEVEL CAA AND THE DEEP SNOW
PACK IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS 
EXPECTED...AS 925 MB TEMPS RISE FROM -5 TO -10C ON TUESDAY...TO 0 TO 
-4C BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY 
LATE WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS EAST OF THE VALLEY. WITH LATE 
MARCH AVERAGE HIGHS AROUND 40F...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD THOUGH. 00Z MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE DIVING 
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODEST UPPER FORCING...BUT THINK 
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING A 
VERY DRY COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN VFR CIGS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK/MAKOWSKI