179 
FXHW60 PHFO 220632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
825 PM HST THU MAR 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH KAUAI EARLY FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE NEAR MAUI COUNTY ON 
SATURDAY. TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL INDICATIONS...THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO REACH KAUAI AROUND 
SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN EASE ON TO OAHU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN 
TO MAUI COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE 
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE... 
BUT RADAR IS SHOWING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE THE 
FRONT...ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF KAUAI. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE 
DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WITH KAUAI GETTING THE 
BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ONLY 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR KAUAI. SO FAR THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH 
KAUAI HAVE TOPS TO 14 THOUSAND FEET.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN MODERATELY STRONG 
OVER AND AROUND KAUAI...THUS THEY HAVE BEEN BEEFED UP IN THE GRIDS.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WE HAVE A SHOWERY FORECAST FOR 
KAUAI FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND INCREASING SHOWERS FOR OAHU... 
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT CLEARLY NOTICEABLE ON SATELLITE DUE 
TO THE HIGH CLOUDS BUT THERE IS A POOL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS 
ROUGHLY 80 MILES SOUTH OF OAHU THIS EVENING. SOME VEERING OF THE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WILL DIRECT THIS POOL TO 
OAHU AND MAY BE MOLOKAI AND OR LANAI AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES NEAR KAUAI AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPO  
MVFR BY MIDNIGHT FOR KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MT OBSC IS UP FOR
KAUAI AS WELL. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OAHU IF MT OBSC IS NEED IN 
TANDEM WITH THE INCREASE SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINING 
ISLANDS WILL BE VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PAUWELA BUOY OFF THE NORTH SHORE OF MAUI HAS FINALLY LEVELED OFF 
AROUND 8 AND A HALF FEET AFTER INCHING VERY SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ACCORDING THE WAVE WATCH...THIS SWELL IS PEAKING NOW AND SHOULD 
START TO SUBSIDE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE CURRENT FORECAST  
CALLS FOR THE WARNING LEVEL SURF TO DROP TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY 4 AM 
HST FRIDAY. THIS SWELL AT BUOY 51101 PEAKED AT 21Z BUT THE 
SIGNIFICANT DROP DID NOT OCCUR A LITTLE WHILE AGO AT 7 PM HST AT 10 
FEET. WE WILL MONITOR THIS SWELL CLOSELY. IF THE WARNING NEEDS TO BE 
EXTENDED...IT WILL BE TO LATE MORNING.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND KAUAI 
AND WINDWARD WATERS OF OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING 
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES 
OF MAUI. 

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES 
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WATERS AROUND KAUAI 
AND WINDWARD WATERS OF OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAUAI 
AND KAIWI CHANNELS.



&&

$$

LAU