National Weather Service Raw Text Product

093 
FXUS62 KMLB 201904
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...

CURRENT-TONIGHT..WARM FRONT BEING ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 
EXTENDS BACK INTO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW DOME WILL BECOME
LESS OF A WEATHER FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEREFORE RAIN
CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES POISED TO START MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVENIGHT WITH THE WEATHER CLEARING OUT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A 
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER FLORIDA AND 
PRODUCE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS 
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...POSSIBLY MIDDLE 40S IN COLDER PRONE 
AREAS...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. 

THU NIGHT-FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS 
IN THE LOW 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM 
SOUTHWEST BREVARD TO SAINT LUCIE COUNTY WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OSCEOLA 
AND MOST OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. MID 40S FOR URBAN AREAS AND ALONG 
THE COAST CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION
FRI NIGHT-WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH FRI NIGHT AND BE NORTH OF THE AREA SAT. DURING THIS
TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS PRECIP FRI
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH
HAS CHANCE POPS STARTING SAT. WITH HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S SAT
AFTERNOON...HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TOO.

ON SUN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND THERE SHOULD
BE A BAND OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT. MOS POPS ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH...ONLY 20 TO 35 PERCENT. THE MODEL HAS DECENT QPF CONFINED
TO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH HAS A BROAD BRUSH 30 POP. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS QUITE WARM...AT LEAST IN THE MID 80S.

MON-WED...THE GFS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF
THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOVE THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH THEN INDICATES MOISTURE
LIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. EVEN THE GFS...WHICH HAS DRYING BELOW AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE NORTH...HAS POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT THERE.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH TUE-WED. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER...EITHER
FROM COOL ADVECTION OR MORE CLOUDINESS...GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL NORTH.


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR SHOWERS AND CEILINGS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WEST COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTY AIRPORTS AND TERMINAL LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS NORTH TO SOUTH
BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS...THE AREA NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING 
SOUTHEASTS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS 
BUOYS JUST EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE 
RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT OVER 
THE GULF MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION 
AND NEARSHORE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE IN THE 
GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE.

TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS 
ORIENTED EAST-WEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE AS A 
TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE EVENING. NORTHEAST 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST 
FLOW FURTHER SOUTHWARD. BECAUSE OF THE BOUNDARY WIND DIRECTION WILL 
BE HARD TO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY BUT DO EXPECT DIRECTION TO 
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL 
APPROACH 20 KTS AND WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. 

WILL INITIATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE ZONES BEGINNING
AT 00Z/8PM TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT AS STRONG ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT
TO EXTEND ADVISORY TO NEAR SHORE BUT DO BELIEVE CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY HERE. FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED NEAR
SHORE AS WELL. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6
FT OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN
WINDS. CURRENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY SHORT
PERIODS TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
THU-FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THU
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THEN A SOUTHEAST WIND
NEAR 10 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.

WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
ON SAT INTO THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH OCCASIONALLY SHOULD BE NEAR 20 KNOTS. WILL 
ALSO HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING 
OFF THE MAINLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THU-FRI...MIN RH WILL BE VERY LOW ON THU OVER THE INTERIOR...NEAR
20 PERCENT...THEN SLIGHTLY RECOVER TO 25-30 PERCENT ON FRI. WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY THU BUT BY AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10
MPH OR LESS...AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH FRI. RED FLAG CRITERIA DO
NOT LOOK TO BE MET EITHER DAY...SO FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOT PLANNED.

WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NO LOW
RH IS EXPECTED...BUT WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  67  44  72 /  20  10  10  10 
MCO  50  71  46  77 /  20  10  10  10 
MLB  51  67  47  76 /  30  10  10  10 
VRB  52  69  47  75 /  30  10  10  10 
LEE  48  69  45  75 /  20  10  10  10 
SFB  50  69  46  76 /  20  10  10  10 
ORL  51  70  49  76 /  20  10  10  10 
FPR  54  70  44  76 /  30  10  10  10 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD 
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN 
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM 
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER