388 
FXUS61 KCLE 192344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. IT APPEARS THAT SKIES IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY COVER WHERE NEEDED. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPS BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK WITH LATER UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IN THE SNOW BELT.
THIS IS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IN A SERIES. THE SNOW
WILL START TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS AROUND 14C. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT HAS
BEEN MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY. AS OF 2 PM...NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OHIO WITH UP TO AN INCH IN ERIE COUNTY PA. THE
COUNTY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY WOULD BE ERIE COUNTY PA. ATTM
THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 2 TO 4 INCH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
FOR ERIE COUNTY PA AND NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW TO BE IN BANDS SINCE
IT IS NOT REAL COLD ALOFT. ONE TO 3 INCHES FOR CRAWFORD PA AND
AROUND AN INCH ELSEWHERE IN THE SNOW BELT.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY 
WITH SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS WITH SOME WIND 
CONTINUING. WINDS MAY STILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH DARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DECREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SNOW 
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS 
ARE KIND OF ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE MOISTURE. IN FACT THE GFS 
AFTER IT MOVES A STRONG UPPER TROF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE GET 
INTO WARM ADVECTION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROF OVER THE AREA. 
EVENTUALLY WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE FOR PART OF THE SNOW BELT. 
CONTEMPLATED A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE SNOW 
BELT BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING THAT MAY TAME THE 
AMOUNTS. ALSO WITH THE MODEL CONFLICT WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING. THE 
MAIN THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MORE NORTHEAST OH AND NW 
PA...WITH A THREAT ELSEWHERE.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON 
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR BOTH 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 40S.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE 
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MONDAY.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A 
WARM FRONT QUICKLY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS 
POSSIBLE SOME PCPN COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST 
AREAS BUT MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
PCPN TYPE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WITH THE WARM FRONT 
SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN MAY START AS A MIXED BAG BEFORE A TRANSITION TO 
RAIN AND THEN SNOW ON MONDAY. THE GFS INDICATES COLD AIR ADVECTION 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY.  AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES 
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE PCPN SHOULD 
TRANSITION TO SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT
02Z BEFORE DECOUPLING. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD NOT
EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SKIES SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KERI WHERE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF NON-VFR WILL BE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT
OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKE.  WINDS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 
35 KNOT GALES BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED 
WINDS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 25 
KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB