360 
FXUS63 KICT 192048
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP ON THU WITH
COLDER TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
WINTERY PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
CURRENT BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC SNOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL 
STAY NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL 
TEMPS TONIGHT.     

WED-THU:
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR WED...AS A MID 
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL HELP PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS OOZING INTO THE 
AREA FOR WED/WED NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON 
WED EVENING...AS WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF 
THIS SHALLOW COOL AIR WED EVE/NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST 
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.  THIS WARM ADVECTION/ 
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY ON THU...AS 
AN INVERTED SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS OK. THIS LIFT/WAA WILL BE THE 
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH CHANCE POPS INCREASING BETWEEN 
06-12/THU...AND INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF SRN KS FOR THE DAYTIME 
HOURS ON THU. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY INITIALLY OVER CEN 
KS AS LOW TEMPS MAY HOVER CLOSE TO FREEZING THU MORNING...SO COULD 
SEE A MIX OF SLEET/LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN IN THIS AREA. BUT MOST 
OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SRN KS AS 
THE WARM NOSE IN THE 850-700H LAYER KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP IN A 
LIQUID FORM. COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER EXTREME 
SOUTHEAST KS ON THU...BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP...BUT WARM NOSE ALOFT 
WILL LEAD TO QUICK CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN. THINK GFS IS OVERDONE 
WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SW MO.  

WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP AROUND ON THU...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO 
MOVE MUCH...WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO TEMPS POSSIBLY 
15-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL.    

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THU 
NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SHALLOW 
COLD AIR AND SATURATED LOW LAYERS HANGING AROUND.  THIS MAY LEAD TO 
SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIP AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT. WILL HAVE 
TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS THU NIGHT...AS A MIXED MODE OF PRECIP MAY BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WHERE SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR 
KEEPS TEMPS COOLER.    

FRI WILL THE BE LULL BETWEEN THE THU SYSTEM AND A MUCH STRONGER 
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 
FLOW WILL TEMPS ALMOST 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH 
PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO FRI...AS MID LAYERS DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...WITH 
SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL SATURATION OVER SRN KS. COULD SEE MORE OF A 
CLOUDY/DRIZZLE TYPE OF DAY ON FRI.  

SAT-SUN:
ATTENTION QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS FOR SAT. SOME MODEL 
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY 
ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. WITH THE ECMWF THE DEEPEST AND 
STRONGEST AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.  WHILE THE 
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIP EVENT FOR THE AREA WITH A MIX OF PRECIP INITIALLY AND THEN  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW STORM...WITH 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
LOOKS LIKE SPRING CONDITIONS WILL BE DELAYED...AS THE COLDER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPS STICK AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE 
SHALLOW COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW SLOW 
TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS.  
  
KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24HRS WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  51  34  41 /  10   0  40  60 
HUTCHINSON      22  49  34  39 /  10   0  40  50 
NEWTON          26  47  33  39 /  10   0  30  60 
ELDORADO        29  49  33  39 /  10   0  20  70 
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  52  35  42 /  10   0  30  80 
RUSSELL         21  49  33  45 /  10  10  40  50 
GREAT BEND      23  50  35  46 /  10  10  40  50 
SALINA          22  48  33  38 /  10   0  20  60 
MCPHERSON       25  48  33  39 /  10   0  30  60 
COFFEYVILLE     33  51  33  40 /  10   0  10  90 
CHANUTE         30  49  31  37 /  10   0  10  90 
IOLA            29  47  31  36 /  10   0  10  90 
PARSONS-KPPF    32  49  32  38 /  10   0  10  90 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$