703 
FXUS64 KCRP 192043
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
343 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
RETURNED TO EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH HAS USHERED LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH
BOUNDARY AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOW END CHANCES
FOR PRECIP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN
THE NORTHEAST BASED ON OUTPUT FROM HIGH RES MODELS. DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4AM UNTIL 7PM.
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED 
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 
PANHANDLE WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION AT 
THE START OF THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER AN INCH...AROUND 1.1 
TO 1.3 INCHES...WITH THE MOISTURE MAINLY AT THE SURFACE. WEAK TO 
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT 
RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME 
LIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...THO 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN THE MEANTIME...A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES...AND REACH 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO 
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT BRINGING IN THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF OF THE SIERRA 
MADRE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. TEMPS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SHOULD 
REACH INTO THE MID 90S...WITH LOW AND MID 80S OVER THE EASTERN CWA. 
THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 
15 DEGREES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  77  58  80  68  /  20  20  10  20  20 
VICTORIA          59  76  52  76  64  /  30  20  10  20  20 
LAREDO            66  78  60  86  68  /  10  20  10  10  10 
ALICE             65  78  56  82  66  /  20  20  10  20  20 
ROCKPORT          64  74  61  75  67  /  30  20  10  20  20 
COTULLA           63  76  56  83  64  /  20  20  10  20  10 
KINGSVILLE        65  77  56  81  65  /  20  20  10  20  20 
NAVY CORPUS       66  73  64  77  69  /  20  20  10  20  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT 
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RG/82...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM