472 
FXUS64 KLCH 192014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE AFTERNOON WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE
RIDGE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDING A DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY TOO DRY AT THE MOMENT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1
INCH AND NEAR 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL EXPAND TO EAST WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY LARGE
HAIL ISSUES...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING THE FORECAST
AREA...SO MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
ARE WHAT THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH. 

A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...WITH SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY AND
HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN RETURN ON THURSDAY...AS A MAINLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL MOVE ACROSS ON FRIDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...UNTIL A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

A RATHER COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT...PROVIDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OCCURRING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...AND HELP TURN WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO BORDERLINE MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS. AT-LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AND LIKELY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  48  70  59 /  30  20   0  10  20 
KBPT  56  73  50  69  60 /  40  20   0  10  10 
KAEX  49  70  43  69  54 /  40  10   0  10  20 
KLFT  54  70  48  69  57 /  20  20   0  10  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$