664 
FXUS64 KAMA 192010
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
310 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A NEW LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN IT
WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY SINCE THE
NEW ENGLAND STORM WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
MOVES INTO MONTANA IT WILL HELP TO SEND A LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH JUST TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM IDAHO
ON FRIDAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THEY ARE NOW TRENDING BACK TO THE NORTH. AT ANY
RATE...BELIEVE THAT LIFT FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR PLUNGES
SOUTH. AGAIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT AN INCH OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY REBOUND INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE REGION. READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST COLD
FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GET UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START
TO GO UP FOR THE PANHANDLES BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  63  41  74  36 /   0   0   0  10  10
BEAVER OK                  28  62  40  66  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              26  62  40  68  32 /   0   0   0  20  20
BORGER TX                  34  62  47  74  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              32  65  43  77  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
CANYON TX                  32  64  40  75  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLARENDON TX               36  62  43  77  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
DALHART TX                 29  62  37  72  32 /   0   0   0  10  10
GUYMON OK                  28  61  39  70  34 /   0   0   0  20  20
HEREFORD TX                32  63  40  74  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                29  61  43  70  39 /   0   0   0  20  20
PAMPA TX                   33  60  43  72  38 /   0   0   0  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                33  61  43  76  43 /   0   0   0  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              37  64  43  78  45 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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