988 
FXUS62 KJAX 191606 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.NOON UPDATE...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS FALLEN APART WITH FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE REMOVED TSTM 
ACTIVITY FROM THE FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
LINE OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND PUSHED IN THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS STILL
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS MAX TEMPS PUSH ONCE
AGAIN CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. WINDS
STILL GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACRS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE. NOT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS TO TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS BUT A STRONG
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SGJ-GNV NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH COLD 500MB TEMPS OF -15/-16C. TONIGHT...SCTD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND OVERRUNNING EVENT MAY
START TO TAKE PLACE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. GNV STANDS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
IMPACTING THE FLORIDA TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES. 

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEAK AND DIFFUSE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY...MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  47  69  38 /  20  10  20  20 
SSI  73  55  64  44 /  20  10  20  20 
JAX  79  53  68  41 /  30  20  30  30 
SGJ  76  59  68  46 /  30  30  40  30 
GNV  80  57  72  43 /  40  30  40  30 
OCF  81  58  75  46 /  30  20  40  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET