151 
FXUS64 KLCH 191130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO WED
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SE TX, BUT KAEX AND
KLCH MAY HAVE SHOWERS IN VC AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME A
CONCERN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
IN. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS JOURNEY THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF BOUT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KICK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
TRACKING OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH WEAKENING...WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DISSIPATING
ALTOGETHER. POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MODIFIED A
BIT...WERE LARGELY RETAINED.

A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS STATES...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON THURSDAY...DRAWING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS TODAY ON A WARMER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTED
IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A BOUT OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING. HEADLINED SCEC FOR ALL OF THE GULF MARINE ZONES FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST
NORTHERLY FLOW. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  55  73  49  70 /   0  30  20  10  10 
KBPT  73  56  73  50  68 /   0  40  20  10  10 
KAEX  74  48  70  43  69 /   0  30  10   0   0 
KLFT  77  53  71  48  69 /   0  20  10   0  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH 
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY 
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL 
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

&&

$$