097 
FXUS65 KVEF 191009
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
309 AM PDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS PACIFIC 
STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND LIGHT SHOWERS 
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DRY 
CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING WAS 
HELPING TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS THE 
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH 
CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH 
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL 
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS 
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT INDICATING TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY 
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE STRONG 
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE OWENS 
VALLEY AND THE DYER AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS CERTAINLY NOT A 
CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 
OWENS VALLEY AND DYER AREA. I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO 
WITH A WARNING OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SO THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SECOND AREA OF GUSTY WINDS STILL LOOKS TO BE 
ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...SOUTHERN CLARK AND CENTRAL 
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. AT THIS TIME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH APPEAR 
LIKELY IN NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH 
LIKELY IN THE REST OF THAT AREA. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER 
THE AREA THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH LOCALLY BREEZY 
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DROPPING 
THROUGH UTAH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT DRAWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE 
REGION. LATEST EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 
NORMAL FRIDAY COOLING 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY 
WINDY NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. LITTLE TO NO 
CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS 
DIFFERING IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 
SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS 
AFTERNOON. BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 15K FEET WITH SOME CLEARING 
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS NEAR KDAG AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE 
SIERRA. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET THIS MORNING EXCEPT NEAR 
KBIH AND ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE WITH CIGS NEAR 10K FEET. MUCH 
STRONGER WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS AT LEAST THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR NVZ014.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

$$

HARRISON/SALMEN

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