766 
FXUS63 KICT 190834
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA IS PROGGED 
TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA 
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A HARD FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. 

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 EXPECTED. CLOUDS SHOULD BE 
ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WITHIN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/H7 WAA 
REGIME. MAINTAINED LOW POPS WEIGHTED IN THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND 
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO TREND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP. THE GFS HAS 
TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED 
NEAR H8 WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL MELTING OF ICE ENTERING THE 
COLUMN...THEREFORE INTRODUCED A RAIN/SLEET MIX WHERE SFC 
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN 3C WHILE EXPANDING THE AREA OF RAIN 
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THE MIXED PHASE 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. 

PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC THURSDAY NIGHT AS 
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS 
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY 
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT THEREFORE 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME MAINTAINING MID POPS 
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MIXED PHASE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY-MONDAY...AFTER A BRIEF LULL FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LARGER 
SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE PLAINS SAT-SUN. 
THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC 
RUNS BUT PHASE/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IN ADDITION...DPROG/DT 
CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR-RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN BOTH MODELS. THE 
NCEP/ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OFFER LITTLE HELP WITH A WIDE RANGE OF 
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SO MAINTAINED MID POPS FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT WHERE 
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITHIN THE MEAN LARGER SCALE 
MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 
UP TO 30 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALLOWING THE 
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSLN/KCNU...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. NEXT
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  30  52  36 /   0  10   0  40 
HUTCHINSON      58  22  50  35 /   0  10   0  40 
NEWTON          56  26  48  33 /   0  10   0  30 
ELDORADO        58  29  50  34 /   0  10   0  20 
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  33  53  38 /   0  10   0  30 
RUSSELL         55  21  50  33 /  10  10  10  30 
GREAT BEND      55  23  51  35 /  10  10  10  40 
SALINA          56  22  49  34 /  10  10   0  20 
MCPHERSON       56  25  49  34 /   0  10   0  30 
COFFEYVILLE     60  33  52  35 /   0  10   0  10 
CHANUTE         57  30  50  32 /   0  10   0  10 
IOLA            56  29  48  31 /  10  10   0  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    58  32  50  34 /   0  10   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MWM