525 
FXUS61 KCLE 190546
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA...AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST MARKS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO FALL BEHIND THIS FRONT. RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMES
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DUE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL
TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. 

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ERIE CO PA HAS EXPIRED AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO GUST CLOSE TO 40 OR MAYBE 45 MPH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS OR SO. AS SOON AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW...GUSTS WILL BE
LESS.

OVERALL AIR MASS DRYING OUT BUT SOME MODELS HINTING AT LOW CHANCE
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE JUST FLURRIES
MENTIONED BEFORE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL HAVE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON IN INTENSITY
MAINLY IN THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED A LAKE EFFECT WARNING OR
ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE MORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETS NEAR 15 TO 16C.
THE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THAT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY OR
WARNING...SO DON'T WANT TO OVER DO A HEADLINE FOR DAYS...WHEN IT
WE ONLY NEED A HEADLINE LATER IN THE WEEK.

HAVE INCREASED THE GUSTS FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WINDOW OF GUSTS
THAT MAY GET NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT
MENTIONED GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH IN THE UPDATED FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE 
WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS A LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA. BY SUNDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE BECOMES BETTER 
ORGANIZED BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA.     
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...SO THE 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...IMPROVING TO VFR
(BKN035) EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE DRIZZLE AND
EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER AT KERI THIS EVENING AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH BRUSHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY FROM THE WEST WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY UP.  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS 
BY EARLY TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. 
BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TOMORROW...BUT A 35 KNOT 
GALE IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE 
A LITTLE FOR WED BUT SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO 
THU NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB