935 
FXUS64 KMAF 190526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1226 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN PLACE. HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT RESULTING IN BKN-OVC SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND 21Z
THEN KFST AND KPEQ BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 12-14KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KT
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS
PUSHED A COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS 
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...A
RENEWED PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR LATER TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW DUE TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO MEXICO
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S EXTREME NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NEAR AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE AREA IN THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BIG WARMUP IN STORE AREAWIDE THURSDAY DUE TO A LEE LOW/TROUGH AND
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BEYOND THURSDAY THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE A
COMPLETE SWEEP OF THE AREA UNTIL THE DAY SATURDAY ONCE THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FINALLY APPROACHES AND PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY BUT ODDS
LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER (BELOW
NORMAL) TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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