008 
FXUS63 KICT 190457
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE 
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND 
INTO SOUTHEAST TX. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING-IN OVER THE 
HIGH PLAINS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) 
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO 
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO 
TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST KS/SE 
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN MO BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO 
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY 
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED 
TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY ARE RIGHT NOW.

THE MEAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST ON WED ALLOWING 
SURFACE RIDGING TO BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE 
PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) 
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT 
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES BY THU MORNING. 
IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SE CO 
SETTING UP RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PRECIP SHOULD 
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE WED NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 
290-295K LAYER. THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHIFT EAST ON 
THU AS SOME UPPER ENERGY KICKS OUT AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THE 
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH PRECIP THU INTO THU NIGHT WILL BE THE TYPE. AT 
THIS POINT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW WOULD BE FOR THE NORTHEAST 
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL 
ALLOW FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO BE INTRODUCED. SO AT THIS POINT...BASED ON 
PRECIP TYPE...LOCATIONS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
LOOK TO BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR MEASURABLE SNOWS WITH THE 
NORTHEAST FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY GETTING IN ON SOME 
OF THIS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE THE CLASSIC LOOK FOR A 
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A STRONG MID LEVEL 
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD BE THE MAIN 
CULPRIT. 

SAT-MON:
THE PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT AS 
THIS TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUN.  CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS 
WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH ALL OF THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...
WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECTEDING SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSLN/KCNU...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING. NEXT
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY TUE AFTERNOON 
AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. THESE WINDS 
WILL COMBINE WITH RH'S AROUND 20-25% TO RAISE THE GRASSLAND FIRE 
DANGER INDEX INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR 
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL 
SEE LOW RH'S...THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER. SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON WED WHICH WILL 
BRING VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND KEEP THE FIRE 
DANGER DOWN. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  59  30  51 /   0   0  10   0 
HUTCHINSON      28  57  27  51 /   0   0  10   0 
NEWTON          27  56  27  49 /   0   0  10   0 
ELDORADO        28  57  28  49 /   0   0  10   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  61  30  52 /   0   0  10   0 
RUSSELL         25  57  25  49 /   0  10  10   0 
GREAT BEND      24  57  26  50 /   0  10  10   0 
SALINA          27  55  26  50 /   0  10  10   0 
MCPHERSON       26  55  25  50 /   0   0  10   0 
COFFEYVILLE     32  61  31  49 /   0   0  10   0 
CHANUTE         28  56  29  47 /   0   0  10   0 
IOLA            28  56  29  46 /   0  10  10   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    29  59  27  48 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$