858 
FXUS63 KGLD 172049
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS 
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH...WITH LOW STRATUS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS STRETCHING NORTH TO 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN 
COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE STRETCHING 
DOWN INTO NORTHERN COLORADO.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG 
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MEET NEAR THE 
KS/CO BORDER.  LIFT FROM THE 700-500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT 
WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THIS TIME.  WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING 
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AM EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO 
PEAK...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH MOVE EAST AND LIFT DECLINES.  WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ALONG 
THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING THE STORMS TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE 
SURFACE FEATURE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AND STRENGTHEN AS RAPID PRESSURE RISES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL...WITH GUSTS NEAR
50MPH...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ERODES THE
DEVELOPING INVERSION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
WHEN OR IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WET BULB EFFECT FOR THIS TO
OCCUR SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND HIGHLIGHT FOR THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL DECLINE SOME DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND THE ISALOBARIC PRESSURE RISES SLOW.

MONDAY THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS 
TEMPERATURES WARM AND STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE GROUND.  SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 30 MPH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE LATE 
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH 
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.  AS THE STRONGER 
WINDS MIX DOWN LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOW...RESULTING IN 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE 
AREA.  WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL 
BE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON.  HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS 
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24...WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO THE 
SOUTH.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR 
LONG ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO 
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH 
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE 
TRI STATE AREA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON 
WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES...BUT CURRENTLY THINK VERTICAL 
PROFILES LOOK TOO STABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH OF A RESPONSE TO THE 
EXPECTED FORCING.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND REMAIN STRONG ON 
TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY ACROSS 
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND 
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS CYCLOGENESIS 
INTENSIFIES NEAR THE AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD 
BEING REPLACED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH 
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. GEM AND 
ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEPTH OF LARGE SCALE 
TROUGH SO PLAN ON LEANING FORECAST TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH 
WITH LARGE VARIANCES IN ENSEMBLE DATA...DO NOT THINK PATTERN 
WARRANTED A PERFECT PROG TYPE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND WITH 5-8 DEGREES COMMON LEADING TO A VERY LARGE SPREAD 
OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS...WITH INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOWING 
LARGE RUN TO RUN SWINGS (>25F) IN TEMPS. WITH ALL THE 
UNCERTAINTY...HARD TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE AVERAGE AT THIS POINT. 
FOR POPS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT 12Z GEFS PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH 
LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO...BUT DO NOT THINK CURRENT CONFIDENCE 
WARRANTS MUCH OF A DEPARTURE FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS IS CONTINUING TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST AS SOUTH
WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. BASED TIMING/CONDITIONS OF KMCK TAF OFF
OF THE SPEED THE STRATUS IS RETREATING AND THE TREND AT KOIN.
THERE MAY BE A HOUR OR SO DISCREPANCY WITH THE TIMING...BUT
GENERAL TREND IS FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT KGLD...WITH SOME DECLINE DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT NEARS THE SITE. WINDS
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH SITES THIS EVENING. ALONG THE
FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.  AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME
DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ 
     MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     KSZ001-013-027.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252-253.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ091-092.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR COZ254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ 
     MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL