310 
FXUS61 KPHI 140503
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
103 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AFFECT OUR WEATHER SATURDAY. A SECOND FAST MOVING LOW WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN FOR NEXT MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
WE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FAR FAR NORTH BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE LATEST 00Z WRF-NMMB. TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING THE POCONO PLATEAU
IS SNOW COVERED, SO THE LIGHT ACCUMS WAS CONTINUED. NOT TOO MANY
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE 
SECONDARY FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THE PGRAD BETWEEN 
THE BUILDING HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW/FRONT WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY 
FLOW OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND WILL LIKELY DECREASE FOR A BIT THIS 
EVE BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER OVER THE NW AND HIGHER 
TERRAIN, THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THE NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A 
COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY OVER THE AREA, MAKING TEMPS FEEL COLDER THAN 
THEY ACTUALLY ARE.  TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO
ADVANCE FROM THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE AT THE HIGHEST SAT. MOSTLY RAINS IS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOME SNOW FAR NORTH ACROSS NRN NJ AND
THE SRN POCONOS. THE RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TOTALS.

TWO MORE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM. FIRST
ANOTHER FRONT AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS TOO SHOULD PRODUCE
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SECOND SYSTEM...A
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL DEEPEN MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTH/WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BRING THE
MOST QPF OF THE THREE SYSTEMS. THERE ARE VARIOUS MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE LATER TWO SYSTEMS...SO MOSTLY HPC POPS/TEMPS WERE
USED IN THE GRIDS OF NOW.  

TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF TUE WHEN READINGS MAY BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE VFR, ALBEIT WINDY, CONDITIONS.

PREDAWN VFR CIGS BETWEEN 4K AND 5K WILL TRY TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KABE AND KRDG. WE HAVE
SOME GUSTINESS MENTIONED, BUT IT MAY BE SPORADIC.

THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST EXTENT OF THE VFR
STRATOCU/CU LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A BUMP UP IN THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 KTS AND
GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. 

THIS AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, CLOUD
EXTENT SHOULD DECREASE AND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WE ARE
FORECASTING THE VFR CIG TO CEASE. KABE AND KTTN SHOULD BE THE LAST
TERMINALS TO LOSE THE CIG. WINDS THOUGH SHOULD CONTINUE AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. PEAK GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30S (KNOTS) ARE LIKELY.

WE CONTINUED THE WEST TO WESTNORTHWEST WIND GUSTINESS INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING, BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT IT SHOULD
CEASE BEFORE THE EVENING IS THROUGH. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS REFLECTED IN THE
KPHL TAF IS POSSIBLE LATER AT NIGHT.
 
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. 
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY SUB-VFR WITH LOWER CIGS/PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE FLAGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNCHANGED.  WINDS HAVE YET TO 
RAMP UP ON DEL BAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO SOON.  CONFIDENCE IS 
STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GALE FLAGS ON THU, BUT THE 
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE. 

OUTLOOK...
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL
SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS.
ONE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KTS. THE SYSTEM NEXT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING SCA OR LOW
END GALES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O'HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O'HARA