812 
FXUS64 KMRX 092013
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT 
BRINGING MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE 
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SUNDAY... 
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS COLD FRONT... 
AND PROGNOSTICATE IT TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY 
WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 
WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 
FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY SHOWERS SINCE THE GFS MODEL 
SOLUTION IS MORE STABLE...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY. 
AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES 
ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN SLIGHT 
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE RAIN EXITING THE REGION. DECIDED TO GO 
WITH GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING... 
WITH LIGHT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMER WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL 
SET IN AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO CANADA. 
THIS LOW SEEMS TO STALL OUT...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA 
AND SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE 
AROUND THIS LOW. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF 
RAIN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN 
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST 
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOW SO NO SEVERE THREAT AS OF NOW. GUSTY WINDS 
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   45  70  53  63  40 /   0   0  50 100  50 
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     42  68  50  61  42 /   0   0  50 100  60 
OAK RIDGE, TN             42  68  50  61  40 /   0   0  50 100  60 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    33  66  40  59  44 /   0   0  40 100  80 
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/JW