534 
FXUS62 KMLB 061928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH-EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...
WINDY/CHILLY DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR. NEAR 40 DEGREES TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED MOST PLACES.
PARAMETERS MARGINAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUANCE WITH WINDS
FLIRTING WITH 10 MPH THRESHOLD OVERNIGHT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA VERY
LATE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE. IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO DE-COUPLE
LATE OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL ONLY
MAKE BRIEF MENTION OF IT HERE AND NOT INCLUDE IN ZONES. SHELTERED
AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WOULD HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT FROST. PROTECT COLD
SENSITIVE PLANTS AND PETS TONIGHT.

THE LATEST COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLDER AND DRIER 
CONDITIONS IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. IT 
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF OF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 MPH THIS EVENING AND 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT 
THOUGH THEY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 10 MPH ALONG THE SPACE AND 
TREASURE COASTS. 

THU...
ANOTHER COOL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...PERHAPS A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW SO THERE
WILL ONLY BE A SLOW MODERATION OF THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE SHADED VALUES TOWARDS THE COOLER
ECMWF.

(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) 
SAT-MON...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLC COAST WILL FINALLY
PUSH SEAWARD THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
PROGRESS OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE SAT...EAST SUNDAY...AND
SOUTHEAST MON. THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND IN THE MID 70S...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR MON WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. AIRMASS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO DRY AND STABLE TO INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MON.

MON NIGHT-WED...
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON NIGHT-TUE AS MODELS SHOW A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT LOOKS WEAK THOUGH SO NOT
MUCH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WED...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING
DRYING...AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES. THRU 07/00Z...W/NW SFC WND G22-26KTS. 
WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING BACK TOWARDS AROUND 10 KTS. NORTHERLY 
COMPONENT OF WIND ON THURSDAY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COLD/DRY ADVECTION POURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME. GALE WARNING OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COAST WILL EXPIRE AT
4PM THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL LEGS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY 20-25 KTS WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AWAY FROM THE COAST. OFFSHORE
AND OVER THE GULF STREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT.

ON THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NNW/N WINDS WILL STILL AVERAGE 
10-15 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OVER THE WATERS. SHORT PERIOD 
SEAS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ROUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS STILL 4-6 FT 
OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM AND FALLING TO 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE DURING THE DAY.

FRI...
THE LATEST MARINE MOS SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW 10-12 KNOTS BUT THE
WAVE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELLS. THIS SHOULD
START TO CAUSE ROUGH CONDITIONS AT INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING
TIDE.

WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST SAT AND EAST ON SUNDAY.
SPEEDS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE 10-15 KNOTS BUT A PERIOD OF 15-20
KNOTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
ALSO SEND LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO THE WATERS. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 10 FEET OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT CAN EXPECT ADVISORIES TO BE IN EFFECT. WITH THE ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME ROUGH JUST OUT OF PORT. AND
SPEAKING OF PORT...TRAVERSING INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...
VERY COOL/DRY AIR FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS COMBINED WITH RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ENSURING A HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING GOES
UNTIL 7PM BUT SUSPECT RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING.

THU...
20 FOOT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. RH'S OVER THE INTERIOR STILL
DROPPING INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY 30S/LOWER
40S CLOSER TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. 

FRI-MON...NO RAINFALL. MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ON FRI...THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY VEER...MIN RH
VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ABOUT 5 PERCENT PER DAY. WIND SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ABOUT 5-10 MPH FRI...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME TO 10-15 MPH. DURING THE AFTERNOON...
THESE ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE 15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  41  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  40  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  42  67  45  71 /   0   0   0   0 
VRB  42  69  44  72 /   0   0   0   0 
LEE  38  67  44  72 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  40  68  44  72 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  42  69  46  72 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  40  69  43  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL 
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN 
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN 
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO 
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA 
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD 
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM 
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM 
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY