261 
FXUS62 KFFC 061326 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
826 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013

.UPDATE...

HAVE GONE THROUGH AND MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. USUALLY IN THESE CASES WE ARE
SEEING THE WRAPAROUND FROM THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO LIFT OUT... BUT
AS PER WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE TRENDS...THE SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY STILL DIGGING SOME. AS A RESULT...SEEING MORE CLOUDS THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...AND SEEING QUITE A FEW FLURRIES IN NORTH
GEORGIA SO ADJUSTED WORDING TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AND SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAD TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND ENDED UP LOWERING MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THE ENDING TIME OF THE
ADVISORY AND PERHAPS LINGER IT PAST 18Z BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TDP


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013/ 

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS 
MORNING...THEN MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. EXPECT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE 
SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA THIS MORNING. COLD CORE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD 
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF ATLANTA TO 
ATHENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY AREA AND HAVE ISSUED AN SPS 
TO INCLUDE AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DUSTING ALREADY THIS MORNING.  
HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT AFTER 18Z HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER 
THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIDGING DOMINATES THE STATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND 
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA 
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING BY 00Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND 
ADVISORY. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TODAY TOWARD THE SOMEWHAT COOLER 
MET...OTHERWISE A BLEND. 

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL HELP OUR MAX TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL PUT US NEAR CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO HIGHS. 

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED ISNT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN BEFORE. HAVE GONE WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION WHICH DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY. WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO
THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY.

11

AVIATION... 
12Z UPDATE... 
STRONG WINDS THE MAIN ISSUED FOR THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 
TO 20KT GUSTING TO 30 TO 35KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS 
SHOULD DIMINISH 22Z TO 00Z WITH GUSTS ENDING. STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD 
INTO THE TAF SITES WITH CSG AND MCN ON SOUTHERN EDGE. EXPECT CEILING 
HEIGHTS BKN TO OVC035 TO 040. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER AFTER 00Z. LIGHT 
SNOW EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CLEARING 
LATER TODAY. 

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  30  60  33 /   5   0   0   0 
ATLANTA         47  31  56  37 /  10   0   0   0 
BLAIRSVILLE     40  28  53  29 /  90  10   0   0 
CARTERSVILLE    47  30  56  29 /  20   0   0   0 
COLUMBUS        52  33  60  38 /   0   0   0   0 
GAINESVILLE     45  31  56  35 /  20   0   0   0 
MACON           52  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0 
ROME            47  30  57  30 /  20   0   0   0 
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  58  30 /   5   0   0   0 
VIDALIA         55  36  61  37 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL