854 
FXUS63 KIND 041526
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATIONS TYPES LIKELY.
FORTUNATELY IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED /BY RECENT
STANDARDS/ PERIOD OF WARMER AND QUIET WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA WITH LIGHT BUT VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS PUSHING INTO SW INDIANA.
RAPID REFRESH DIMINISHES THIS BAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
SLIDES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. THIS SEEMS QUITE
REASONABLE...BUT HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO SW INDIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THAT MAY REACH THE GROUND THERE. 

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD OVER ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

MAIN ISSUE IS OBVIOUSLY THE WINTER STORM POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT DOES REMAIN
BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MODEL SUITES...WITH FOREIGN MODELS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL. GFS HAS SHOWN FAIRLY GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...SO LEANED TOWARD IT WITH A WARY
EYE TOWARD THE FOREIGN MODELS AS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND 
VERY SMALL SHIFTS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

IN ALL...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SOMETIME TONIGHT...WITH
SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST AND RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND A
TRANSITION/MIXED PRECIP ZONE IN BETWEEN. AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALL PRECIP WILL BE SNOW.

COMPROMISE QPF NUMBERS GENERATE A SNOWFALL FORECAST OF 1-2 IN THE
SOUTH...2-5 IN THE CENTRAL...4-6 IN THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
LIGHT ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS WARNING CRITERIA MAY WELL
BE BREACHED OVER THE NORTH...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WATCH IN CONCERT
WITH NEIGHBORS...FOR THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUPLE TIERS OF
COUNTIES. THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION IF DOMESTIC MODELS CHOOSE TO
JOIN THE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE FOREIGN MODELS...OR IF GREATER ICE
AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH.

ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS DOWN ON MAXES THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD CLOSER TO SURFACE WETBULB PROGS. CONSENSUS MINS
LOOKED OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS 
OUR REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER 
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS IS THE MOST 
PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...WHILE THE EURO IS THE SLOWEST.  THE GFS 
BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR REGION IN AS SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 
EURO IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER. 

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY 
DESPITE ALL BLEND AND CONSALL POPS WHICH SEEM TO BE FASTER THAN ALL 
OF THE MODELS WITH ITS POPS AND TO KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN 20 
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  IF SLOWER EURO IS 
RIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY MAY BE DRY AS WELL WITH 
PRECIP SPREADING IN JUST AFTER DAY 7.

ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS AND DID 
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THEIR NUMBERS.

$$

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 921 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

1420Z UPDATE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE NECESSARY THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR 
BY TUESDAY MORNING. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACK TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
BY MIDNIGHT AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY. INCREASING MID 
CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5 
THOUSAND FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE 
REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN MOST AREAS...BUT A 
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT 
KLAF. 

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS LATER TODAY 
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING FOR INZ021-029>031-038>042-049.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/SMF