999 
FXUS63 KIND 021956
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW. 

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 253 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DO ITS 
BEST TO MAKE INROADS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RIDGE  
BUILDS BRIEFLY BACK OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. 
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA IN 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A ROUND OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A RAIN SNOW MIX BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND 
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL 
THEM REGAIN CONTROL OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THAT 
STORM...PROVIDING A RETURN TO QUIET AND WARMING WEATHER LATE NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 253 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

RADAR ECHOES BEING REPORTED AT THE SURFACE AS FLURRIES AND SHOULD 
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY EDGES INTO 
INDIANA. REPLACED CHANCE OF FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES DUE TO 
THE NATURE OF THE COVERAGE. 

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO FINALLY BREAK SOMEWHAT 
LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH NO WIDESPREAD CLEARING IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE 
CLOUDS WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THESE PAST 
FEW DAYS. THIS YIELDS LOWS 20-25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 253 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING THE
SYSTEM/S MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THOUGH SUNDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY...CENTRAL INDIANA MAY 
FINALLY SEE SOME PEAKS AT THE SUN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MUCH 
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE 
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE 
AREA...AND THEN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY COMPACT UPPER 
LOW BUT A BROAD SURFACE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THAT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL 
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME MIXING OR OUTRIGHT RAIN 
WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON THESE AMOUNTS AT TIMES...AND LATEST MODELS 
SEEM TO BE COMING IN QUITE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO BUMPED UP 
COVERAGE OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES. IF MODELS HAD NOT COME IN SO WARM WOULD 
HAVE BEEN TEMPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...HOWEVER AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE SNOW 
MEASURABLE TO WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN 
THE HWO. MODELS THEN TRACK A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING 
SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS (A COUPLE INCHES) TO THE 
REGION...ESP TUE EVENING.  

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT AN STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE END TO A SNOW EVENT. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM IS
GROWING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS NEAR 0.50 IN. DRY AIR THEN INTRUDES INTO
THE COLUMN TOWARD 12Z WED AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE
AREA. THUS HAVE RAISED POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NEW SNOW ALONG WITH COOL NORTH FLOW HAVE TRENDED HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

RIDGING AND A DRY FORECAST COLUMN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST FOR THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS BY FRIDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS HINT AS A LINGERING BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE IN THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER ALL BLEND HAS YET TO SUGGEST
POPS...THUS WILL LIMIT THOSE POPS FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE LATER FORECASTS ADD POPS AS MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS FAVORABLE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1216 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013

MVFR TO VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS SATELLITES IMAGES SHOW
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS RESULTING IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES
NEAR LAF AND HUF FROM TIME TO TIME...HOWEVER THIS TREND SHOULD END
THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

SURFACE RIDGE STILL REMAINS WEST OF INDIANA. UNTIL LOWER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR TO VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
AGAIN...MAV APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLEARING AS TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SUGGEST PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP