National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTFX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC Found 2 products at the given pil and timestamp. Scroll down to see them all.
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2013-02-27 11:33 UTC
Bulk Download
Bulk Download
Bulk Download Help
This bulk download tool provides the NWS text
in a raw form, hopefully directly usable by your processing system.
You can either provide a complete 6-character PIL/AFOS ID or provide
the 3-character base ID (e.g., AFD). The start and end
dates represent 00 UTC for those dates. The Zip format is useful as
the filenames will have the product timestamp, which is useful for
when the product format has ambiguous timestamps.
830 FXUS65 KTFX 271431 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 433 AM MST Wed Feb 27 2013 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday...Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a long fetch of moist westerly flow across the Eastern Pacific with a shortwave along the leading edge of this plume moving inland across WA and BC. A weak shortwave ridge ahead of the trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and MT today, keeping the area mainly dry with increasing clouds from the west. The shortwave moving into the Pacific NW this morning will weaken as it tracks east in response to ridge amplification upstream along the west coast. Moist westerly flow and upper level jet support will however still produce increasing coverage of snow showers along the Continental Divide late this afternoon and tonight as the energy moves across the region. The upper ridge along the west coast continues to amplify and progress inland Thursday and Friday, however the embedded moist plume and several disturbances along with a strong upper level jet moving over the ridge will keep a significant amount of cloud-cover moving across the region along with chances for precipitation over the mountains. One of the embedded disturbances which cross the region Thursday holds the best chance for light/scattered precipitation further east over the Plains. West to northwest winds will strengthen through the period with surface pressure gradients also increasing as surface high pressure builds over the Great Basin. This will bring increasing surface winds to the Plains with windy conditions likely on Friday. The NAM model would support potential development of strong winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains on Friday as winds aloft and surface pressure gradient peaks along with favorable conditions for mountain wave development, however GFS model has substantially lighter winds aloft and less favorable conditions for mountain wave development and for now am expecting strong winds to be isolated in these areas, but this will continue to be monitored. Warming aloft will bring a gradual increase in temperatures today and Thursday, but this will be tempered by significant cloud-cover. Stronger warming and drying arrives Friday, and this combined with strengthening winds will push afternoon temperatures to around 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages. Hoenisch Friday Night through Wednesday...Models remain in good agreement that an upper level ridge will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions to the region through Saturday. However, conditions change rapidly on Sunday as an upper level trough moves inland along the west coast. By Monday morning there is little agreement between the models with regard to placement of surface and upper level features. However, despite these differences, both models expect wetter and colder conditions across the state. As a result, have increased pops for Sunday and Sunday night, although confidence in location and amounts remains rather low at this time. Most likely scenario based upon analogs and forecast confidence tools suggest that precipitation will hit western Montana Sunday then move across central Montana Sunday night. Expectations are for snow in the mountains and rain at lower elevations on Sunday with snow changing over to all snow by late Sunday night. Showers linger across the region on Monday with drier conditions expected by Tuesday as shortwave ridging moves through the northern Rocky Mountains. A progressive pattern aloft brings another trough inland on Wednesday so have trended pops and temperatures toward climatology. mpj && .AVIATION... Updated 1133Z. A weak shortwave will move across Montana today bringing variable mid and high level clouds. Breezy to windy conditions will develop along the east slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front by 18Z but the remainder of the forecast area will experience generally light winds through the forecast period. A moist westerly flow aloft sets up by 06Z Thursday for an increasing chance of precipitation and obscurations along the continental divide but VFR condtions will prevail at all terminals through 12Z Thursday. mpj && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 26 45 32 / 0 10 20 10 CTB 43 23 44 31 / 0 10 20 10 HLN 40 25 43 31 / 10 10 20 10 BZN 34 15 37 23 / 0 10 20 10 WEY 27 9 31 14 / 20 20 50 30 DLN 37 17 40 26 / 0 10 10 10 HVR 40 22 43 25 / 0 10 20 10 LWT 34 17 36 22 / 10 10 20 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HOENISCH LONG TERM...mpj AVIATION...mpj weather.gov/greatfalls
445 FXUS65 KTFX 271133 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 433 AM MST Wed Feb 27 2013 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday...Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a long fetch of moist westerly flow across the Eastern Pacific with a shortwave along the leading edge of this plume moving inland across WA and BC. A weak shortwave ridge ahead of the trough will traverse the Northern Rockies and MT today, keeping the area mainly dry with increasing clouds from the west. The shortwave moving into the Pacific NW this morning will weaken as it tracks east in response to ridge amplification upstream along the west coast. Moist westerly flow and upper level jet support will however still produce increasing coverage of snow showers along the Continental Divide late this afternoon and tonight as the energy moves across the region. The upper ridge along the west coast continues to amplify and progress inland Thursday and Friday, however the embedded moist plume and several disturbances along with a strong upper level jet moving over the ridge will keep a significant amount of cloud-cover moving across the region along with chances for precipitation over the mountains. One of the embedded disturbances which cross the region Thursday holds the best chance for light/scattered precipitation further east over the Plains. West to northwest winds will strengthen through the period with surface pressure gradients also increasing as surface high pressure builds over the Great Basin. This will bring increasing surface winds to the Plains with windy conditions likely on Friday. The NAM model would support potential development of strong winds along the Rocky Mtn Front and adjacent plains on Friday as winds aloft and surface pressure gradient peaks along with favorable conditions for mountain wave development, however GFS model has substantially lighter winds aloft and less favorable conditions for mountain wave development and for now am expecting strong winds to be isolated in these areas, but this will continue to be monitored. Warming aloft will bring a gradual increase in temperatures today and Thursday, but this will be tempered by significant cloud-cover. Stronger warming and drying arrives Friday, and this combined with strengthening winds will push afternoon temperatures to around 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages. Hoenisch Friday Night through Wednesday...Models remain in good agreement that an upper level ridge will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions to the region through Saturday. However, conditions change rapidly on Sunday as an upper level trough moves inland along the west coast. By Monday morning there is little agreement between the models with regard to placement of surface and upper level features. However, despite these differences, both models expect wetter and colder conditions across the state. As a result, have increased pops for Sunday and Sunday night, although confidence in location and amounts remains rather low at this time. Most likely scenario based upon analogs and forecast confidence tools suggest that precipitation will hit western Montana Sunday then move across central Montana Sunday night. Expectations are for snow in the mountains and rain at lower elevations on Sunday with snow changing over to all snow by late Sunday night. Showers linger across the region on Monday with drier conditions expected by Tuesday as shortwave ridging moves through the northern Rocky Mountains. A progressive pattern aloft brings another trough inland on Wednesday so have trended pops and temperatures toward climatology. mpj && .AVIATION... Updated 1133Z. A weak shortwave will move across Montana today bringing variable mid and high level clouds. Breezy to windy conditions will develop along the east slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front by 18Z but the remainder of the forecast area will experience generally light winds through the forecast period. A moist westerly flow aloft sets up by 06Z Thursday for an increasing chance of precipitation and obscurations along the continental divide but VFR condtions will prevail at all terminals through 12Z Thursday. mpj && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 26 45 32 / 0 10 20 10 CTB 43 23 44 31 / 0 10 20 10 HLN 40 25 43 31 / 10 10 20 10 BZN 34 15 37 23 / 0 10 20 10 WEY 27 9 31 14 / 20 20 50 30 DLN 37 17 40 26 / 0 10 10 10 HVR 40 22 43 25 / 0 10 20 10 LWT 34 17 36 22 / 10 10 20 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HOENISCH LONG TERM...mpj AVIATION...mpj weather.gov/greatfalls