National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDPHI
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDPHI
Product Timestamp: 2013-02-22 04:05 UTC
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835 FXUS61 KPHI 220405 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1105 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW FORMS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERNIGHT...THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL LOSE ITS EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH APPROACH THE AREA. A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVELY PRODUCED HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL LESSEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT 8 MPH OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY GO TO A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 25 IN OUR REGION. FRIDAY...A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD LATE ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AROUND A READING TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY LINE BY 700 PM FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AT THE ONSET ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW BASED ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... SE PA W OF PHL...PERIODS LIGHT SNOW TO LIGHT ICE TO RAIN. POSSIBLE WINTER WX ADVY. LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ N OF I78...LIGHT SNOW TO ICE EXCEPT N OF I80 MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WHICH INCLUDES POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY. PROBABLE WINTER WX ADVY. REMAINDER...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY LATE. TEMPS/WINDS: BLENDED 00Z/22 NCEP MOS MOS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. POPS: HAVENT FIGURED OUT YET. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IT SHOULD BE RATHER ACTIVE DURING THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. SAT...WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH .5 TO 1.0 QPF EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE BIT OF SNOW FAR NORTH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW MOVES AWAY SAT NIGHT AND THE STEADY PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUN MORNING...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF LESS EVENTFUL WEATHER TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY OR NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO HOW LONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WET (THAN WHITE) SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. A TREND TOWARD LOWER TEMPERATURES (BACK TO BELOW NORMAL) SHOULD BEGIN BY WED AND LAST PAST THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM NEXT THU. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS INCREASING LATE. NNW WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 12 KTS AND BECOMING NNE BY MORNING. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...VFR DEVELOPING CIGS ABV 15000 IN THE MORNING LOWERING TO 5000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. WIND NE BECOMING SE AND GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR LATE WITH SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN KABE/KRDG. CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN MIXED AT THE START KILG-KPHL/PNE/KTTN FRIDAY EVENING BUT BECOMING RAIN LATE. ALL RAIN AND MOSTLY LATE AT KMIV AND KACY. WINDS E TRENDING NE LATE AND UNDER 15 KTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THRU SUN MORNING...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PCPN. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NGT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS MON NGT. TUESDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS/PCPN. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE UPPER BAY, WHERE IT WAS DROPPED. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ON A MODERATE NORTH WIND. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO VEER TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTLOOK... SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LOW END GALE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. MORE SCA CONDITIONS AFTER TUE NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BASED ON THE LATEST WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND ON THE DIMINISHING WINDS, WATER LEVELS LIKELY WILL RECOVER ENOUGH BEFORE THE LATE NIGHT LOW TIDE TO AVOID ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WITH LOW WATER LEVELS. WE WERE MONITORING REEDY POINT, WHICH IS THE LOCATION MOST LIKELY TO CONFOUND US. AS OF 930 PM EST, IT LOOKED UNLIKELY THAT REEDY POINT WOULD HIT THE LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVEL OF MINUS 1.8 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE NEXT LOW TIDE THERE IS AT 233 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O'HARA NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1105 SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1105 LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/O'HARA 1105 MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/O'HARA 1105 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...