National Weather Service Raw Text Product

068 
FXUS63 KFGF 210911
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. 00Z MODELS
IN AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. NO BIG CHANGES
REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST. 

COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN THIS MORNING...BUT MODELS ALL INDICATE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY DRY FLOW WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE WEST.
HAVE REMOVED POPS/WX FOR TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO IOWA AND CONTINUE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST FA WILL BE
NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF SNOW SHIELD...AND MODELS ALL AGREE AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT THE IDEA OF
HIGH POP/LOW QPF. RIDGING THEN DOMINATES ON SATURDAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. FOR TODAY...WITH SOLAR EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN FA...THINKING THE FORESTED AREAS WILL BE ABLE
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO
THE TEENS. MID-UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALL. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING...AND HOW FAR THEY WILL
FALL BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHICH WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TO AROUND 20F. WEAK
FLOW AND SIMILAR AIRMASS TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. IF
THERE IS SOLAR ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE FORESTED AREAS TO BE
WARMER...AND IF/WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AT NIGHT EXPECT VALUES JUST
BELOW ZERO. DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT...BUT NOT TOO CRAZY. 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE IN A 
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY OF SYNOPTIC ENERGY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN CONUS. ANOTHER FOUR CORNERS LOW AND ITS SNOW MAY CLIP THE 
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL MODEL 
TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST 
INTO MN/WI/IA. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES COULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 
THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT AGREEMENT IS POOR. AS A 
RESULT...WILL KEEP LOW-END (20-30 PERCENT) ALL BLEND POPS. WITH NO 
MAJOR CHANGES IN AIR MASS...EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE 
VARIATION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS 
WILL BE IN THE TEENS.   

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LOWER VFR CIGS NEAR KDVL FOR
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THIS EVENING. 06Z RAP INDICATES
LOWER CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL EXPAND. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG/ROGERS