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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND Product Timestamp: 2013-02-21 02:15 UTC
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982 FXUS63 KIND 210218 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 915 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ON FRIDAY. COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA SHOULD BREAK UP SOME THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA OVERALL. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES END UP NEAR OR ABOVE THE WARMER OF THE MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT...BUT THESE READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT...BUT WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDING ON VERY SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...ANY DIFFERENCE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT. PER NATIONAL MODEL DISCUSSION WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AND THE FORECAST IN GENERAL IS LOW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE...BUT EVEN GIVEN THIS HAVE SEEN PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT FASTER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATE. THUS WILL GO ABOVE MOS POPS AND CLOSER TO CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS LOW POPS ACROSS THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FEEL THAT GOOD COOLING WILL OCCUR WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO WENT WITH A SNOW AND SLEET MIX FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGHS. THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX. MOST PLACES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. FOR POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WENT CATEGORICAL AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING AND DECENT MOISTURE. AGAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON EXACTLY WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL FALL AT ANY SPECIFIC TIME GIVEN THAT EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREE CHANGE WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT. FOR NOW HAVE WENT UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST /WHERE COLD AIR WILL HANG ON LONGEST/ TO AROUND 1 INCH CENTRAL TO LESS SOUTH. FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WENT AROUND 0.10 MOST LOCATIONS /LESS SOUTHWEST WHERE WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE FIRST/. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR NOW AND HIGHLIGHT WITH SPS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH ON FRIDAY FOR MAINLY SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLURRIES ON SATURDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 150 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 ECMWF AND GFS SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER OK AND YET ANOTHER OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETTING UP IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHTS. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER A BIT WITH THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS WILL INCLUDE POPS AT THAT TIME. FOR NOW...TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN AS PRECIP TYPE...WITH WARM LOWER LEVELS...AND INDIANA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF DRY THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL HINT AT DRY WEATHER THEN AS DRY AND COLD CANADIAN AIR STREAMS INTO THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SOME LIGHT PRECIP THOUGH AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALLBLEND GOES DRY...THUS WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 915 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE KIND VICINITY. HARD TO TELL HOW EXPANSIVE THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE ON SATELLITE DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD COVER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD. WILL BACK OFF A FEW MORE HOURS ON THE TIMING OF THE SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER CEILINGS ON THE UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 025 CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KLAF. CLOUD DECK APPEARS PARTLY DIURNAL AND PARTLY LAYERED IN NATURE BASED ON APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. SUSPECT MOST OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET...SO THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 025 AT KLAF AND POSSIBLY KIND FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 211200Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...JAS