207 
FXUS63 KBIS 110949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE UPPER LOW OCCLUDING OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TROWAL FEATURE PER GFS H7-H5
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE WHEN OVERLAYED ON THE WATER
VAPOR IS NOSING INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. WITH THIS FEATURE EAST OF OUR ZONES...THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH 12Z WITH BLOWING SNOW DOMINATING AS THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AT OR ABOVE 3 MILES AT OAKES AND JAMESTOWN...AND
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AS WELL AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SURROUNDING
THE WARNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 30 AND 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT VISIBILITIES REMAIN OUTSIDE OF ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF CLOUDS EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/RAP 925MB RH FIELD HAS THIS AREA HANDLED
WELL AND HAVE KEPT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOUDY THROUGH
18Z...THEN STARTED TO ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
THEREAFTER.

EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW 
ALOFT DOMINATES. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM FOR ANY PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 
AND 25 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEGREES TUESDAY. 

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERING NORTH 
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE 
SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THERMODYNAMIC 
PROFILE INDICATES A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 
WITH SNOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH AXIS 
PIVOTS THROUGH THE STATE...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST 
TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS 
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE 
WINTRY MIX SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW 
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...GRADIENT FLOW ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY 
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE 
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO DECREASE AS 
THE LOW DEPARTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCES 
FOR SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SNOW 
WILL THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 
THURSDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL 
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS 
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON 
AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TM