514 
FXUS62 KMLB 062039
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MORE OR LESS 
DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A BROAD MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE BAND NORTH OF TAMPA-CAPE CANAVERAL. AS 
EXPECTED...ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THIS AREA AND ONLY 
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH 
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN A LITTLE BETTER...THERE HAS BEEN 
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST 
COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. 

BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VARIOUS 
BOUNDARIES...BUT IN GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. FOG 
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO 
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THAT SOME LOCATIONS SAW FOG THIS 
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE AND INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST. 
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. 

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW 
ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS. SURFACE LOW 
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SCOOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST 
OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA BY THURSDAY 
EVENING...DRAGGING THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE/REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. 

THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEREFORE IS MORE 
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY...BUT BOTH FOCUS HIGHER RAIN 
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH THAN CENTRAL FLORIDA. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES 
BELOW THE GFS...BUT ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS FAR N 
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY AS THE GENERAL TREND HAS 
BEEN TOWARDS A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG A MORE DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA 
BREEZE.

BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING A VERY WARM DAY WITH TEMPS 
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THU EVENING 
WILL TURN NE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A POTENT COASTAL WINTER STORM AS 
IT HEADS UP THE ERN U.S. COAST ON FRI-FRI NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND 
ECM GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF 
THE FRONT ACROSS ECFL ON FRIDAY...PUSHING IT SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY FRI EVENING WITH A WEAKER REINFORCING BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT 
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. POST FRONTAL NRLY
WINDS ACQUIRE ONSHORE COMPONENT AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SAT WITH VEERING 
OF THE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...POST FRONTAL
COOL ADVECTION IS BRIEF AND BLUNTED/MODIFIED THANKS TO THE 
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CONUS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR SOUTH. 
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY NEAR THE COAST ON SAT.

GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...FEEL THAT THE MARGINAL TS
THREAT ON FRI IS THAT MUCH LOWER...AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED FROM THE 
GRIDS/FORECAST. OTHERWISE...KEPT PREMISE OF THE FORECAST INTACT...
THOUGH THE FASTER TIMING RESULTS IN SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS IN OUR 
CWA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRI-SAT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
1-2 CATS BELOW THU...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH
OF THE WINTER. INLAND MINS ALSO DROP ABOUT 2 CATS. (THE TERM "CAT" AS
USED HERE IS SHORT FOR CATEGORY AND REFERS TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 
LOWER/MIDDLE/UPPER XX'S FOR TEMPS). 

SUN-WED...LARGE POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AND 
THEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN 
TEMPS...WHICH KEEPS ECFL TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY 
WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. THE  TIMING OF APPROACH OF NEXT FRONTAL 
SYSTEM WED IS TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. NOT SURPRISINGLY FOR DAYS 6+ IN 
THE COOL SEASON...THE GFS/ECM HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS 
BUT SEEM TO BE STARTING TO TREND TOWARD A WED NIGHT FROPA...ALTHOUGH 
THIS IS LIKELY TO SLIDE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. CURRENT FORECAST DOES 
NOT YET HAVE RAIN CHANCES BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME WILL BE 
INTRODUCED SOON FOR WED-WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. BKN CIGS AOA 5-8KFT. BRIEF 
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE ALONG COAST WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE 
THROUGH 22Z. LOCAL MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z TONIGHT WITH 
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-THURSDAY...DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING 
WILL PRODUCE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10KTS...BECOMING 10-15KTS 
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY INTO 
THURS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15KTS...15-20KTS NORTH OF 
CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SWAN MODEL CONTINUES ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH BASED ON CURRENT 
OBSERVATIONS...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WAVE WATCH WHICH SHOWS 
2-3FT OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY THURS AFTERNOON AS 
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPY WITH THE WIND 
INCREASE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS GOING FROM 9-11SEC THIS EVENING TO 
5-6SEC THURS AFTERNOON.

THU NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AHEAD THU NIGHT OF FRIDAY'S 
FROPA MAY RESULT IN CAUTIONARY STATEMENT NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AS WINDS PEAK NEAR 20KT EVEN THOUGH SEAS ONLY REACH 4-5FT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT ON SAT BEHIND SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WHICH WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO A SOLID 5-6FT AND PERHAPS A TAD HIGHER
IN THE GULF STREAM BY SAT EVENING IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AT CUSP OF SCA THRESHOLD SUN-MON WITH WINDS REMAINING
CLOSE TO 20KT AS THEY VEER TO EAST AND THEN SE.

WNAWAVE FLIRTS WITH 7FT WITH SWAN ABOUT A FOOT OR SO HIGHER. GIVEN 
THAT THE SWAN GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RUNNING A BIT HIGH AGAIN GIVEN 
THE WIND FORECAST...WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. 
STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE'LL BE  RUNNING WITH AT LEAST A 
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT BY THAT TIME...WITH AN ADVISORY LIKELY IF THE 
FORECAST IS EVEN JUST A LITTLE UNDERDONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  79  64  76 /  10  30  30  20 
MCO  59  82  63  81 /  10  20  20  30 
MLB  64  82  66  79 /  10  20  20  30 
VRB  63  82  65  80 /  10  20  20  40 
LEE  59  80  63  79 /  10  30  30  20 
SFB  59  82  63  80 /  10  20  20  20 
ORL  61  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  30 
FPR  61  81  64  80 /  10  10  20  40 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI