355 
FXUS63 KFGF 032045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL SO WILL
USE A BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...HAS BEEN A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS TODAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RECOVERING TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE
WHILE THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST HAVE BEEN UNDER THE CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
SNOW. BEST BAND OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE GOING FROM MINOT DOWN THRU
KJMS RIGHT NOW WHERE VSBYS IN THE BAND ARE ABOUT A MILE OR LESS.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FA BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THIS BAND AND IT COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON
EITHER SIDE TO LITTLE OR NOTHING AT ALL. CLOUDS ARE FINALLY MOVING
BACK INTO THE KGFK AREA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF SUN. MODELS
STILL INDICATE SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING AND THEN POSSIBLY THINNING OUT AGAIN LATE. SO CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND THE COLDEST
TEMPS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY LIGHT.

MON-WED...BRIEF SFC HIGH DRIFTS DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN FA
ON MON BUT NOT A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR MUCH WARMING. SNOW
WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST FA BY
MON AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FA WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST BY TUE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH WIND WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER. BRIEF RIDGING TUE/TUE EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMES DOWN FOR WED. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A SIMILAR
TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTH AND NE WITH
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...
FLOW WILL BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 
PATTERN THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.  NEAR ZONAL FLOW 
AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT POPS AS THE BOUNDARY 
COMES THROUGH...SO KEPT LOW POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.  COLD 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD 
KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.  UNLIKE THE SUSTAINED 
COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BY FRIDAY AS RIDGING VERY 
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER 
THE WESTERN CONUS COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.  THERE IS 
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING BY 
SATURDAY...AND THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH HAD THE UPPER LOW OVER 
THE OMAHA AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.  12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER AND 
FURTHER WEST WITH THE SYSTEM...BRINGING THE DEFORMATION BAND AND 
DECENT WINDS OF THE MAIN SFC LOW INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA.  
DPROG/DT SHOWS THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN 
THAT GREAT.  ALLBLEND GIVES SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN 
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD 
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON ONLY KFAR AND POSSIBLY 
KDVL.  THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU 
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP 
SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION 
THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW BAND FALLS APART.  ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN 
WILL BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY MONDAY MORNING AND 
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS AT KDVL ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD 
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT 
SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON/JR