755 
FXUS64 KMOB 022020 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2013

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER 
THE AREA...THOUGH A WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE FA LATE EVENING 
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING DROPS IN CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS. BY 
SUNRISE SUNDAY...VFR CIGS/VISBYS ONE AGAIN RETURN.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ATMOSPHERE NEVER QUITE 
GETS BAROTROPIC AND SHOWS COLD ADVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH TAU-24 
PRESENTED BY THAT DEEP TROUGH MORE OR LESS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION 
IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVING EAST AND 
REACHING THE PIEDMONT REGION AND THEN WESTLANT. CAN SEE A BIT OF A 
RISE IN POPS IN NORTHERN CWA DUE TO A WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW 
COUPLED WITH A SURFACE WEAKNESS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...A 
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG NEAR SHORE...BAYS...AND 
WATERWAYS...TO ALLOW FOR MICRO-ADVECTIVE EFFECTS WITH WIND...AND TO 
CORRECT THE INFLUENCE OF SOME COOP STATIONS ON MOS CALCULATIONS. 
77/BD

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS NOT VERY COLD...SO
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. IT WILL COOL DOWN NICELY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST...FAIRLY
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS SEMI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN EXPECTED
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH MOISTURE LEVELS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS. A SHORTWAVE...EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...SO ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
IS LIKELY IF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT. HOWEVER...HESITANT TO
GO TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WHICH COULD STILL AFFECT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LIFT. 

THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY FOR THU-FRI AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL THESE FEATURES CAN BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL STAY
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM IT. WINTER REMAINS ELUSIVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND OVER THE MARINE 
AREA THIS MORNING. WIND BECOMING EAST LATER THIS MORNING VEERING 
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME NORTH AGAIN SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DOMINATE 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEA 
HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET. USED SWAN OUTPUT WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FROM 
BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY. 77/BD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS RH OF LESS THAN 25% OCCURRING
FOR AROUND 4 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SO THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
BUTLER...CRENSHAW...AND COVINGTON COUNTIES. ERC...WINDS...AND
DISPERSIONS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON
SUNDAY...DROPPING HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK INTO THE MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE. ERC AND DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHORT OF
CRITERIA OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GENERALLY
GOOD TODAY AND GOOD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  43  65  38  65 /  05  05  00  00  05 
PENSACOLA   61  42  64  42  63 /  05  05  00  00  05 
DESTIN      60  48  63  44  61 /  05  05  00  00  05 
EVERGREEN   63  37  63  35  63 /  10  05  00  00  05 
WAYNESBORO  64  36  63  36  62 /  10  05  00  00  05 
CAMDEN      62  36  61  34  61 /  20  05  00  00  05 
CRESTVIEW   65  39  65  33  64 /  05  05  00  00  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW... 

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$